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Just a month ago a kind of Leave Vú On the island of Taiwan: it had dawned with a Fleet from China in front of its coasts, again. Beijing repeated the strategy once again, and the enclave then made a decision: Activate a plan B Making the greatest simulation of its history, an invasion disguised as maneuver that lasted 14 days to see how far their defenses would go.
The island has now decided to adopt another strategy by looking at Ukraine.
Survival and resistance. I told this week in Exclusive the Wall Street Journal. The Taiwan government has initiated an urgent and deep transformation of its armed forces in the face of the growing concern that China can launch an invasion before 2027. The main change in the strategy lies in the fact that the objective is not to defeat Beijing in a direct confrontation, but to resist sufficient time to intervene, for example, the United States.
PUELCOESPIN. To do this, Taipéi leaves his traditional preparation for conventional war and adopts An asymmetric strategy Known, according to the newspaper, as a “porcupine strategy”, designed to inflict such a high cost to the invader that a attack dissucted or at least stops it.
This involves deploying multiple coastal layers, reorienting its navy towards coastal operations, reorganizing its army, increasing its anti -men and anti -aircraft missile arsenals and multiplying the acquisition of drones, with the intention of Replicate the Ukrainian model in front of Russia. Plus: has founded a Specialized Academy in training with drones and modernized the formation of their troops to operate sophisticated weapons systems in real combat conditions.
Inspiration in Ukraine. As we said, the example of Ukraine has served Taiwan to learn fundamental lessons, such as the speed with which ammunition reserves are exhausted in a prolonged war. However, the insular geography of the enclave would make extremely difficult to receive external supplies in case of blocking. Therefore, their authorities insist that Increase missile reserves It is a priority. This change of doctrine, however, faces other obstacles. The Minister of Defense, Wellington Koo (one of the few civilians to hold the position), must break a military mentality centered for decades in the conventional war.
There is more, since it adds Trump’s pressurewhich has required Taiwan to raise his military spending until 10% of GDPa difficult goal to achieve for a country that for years has maintained spending around 2%. President Lai Ching-you has committed to increase it to 3% Before the end of the year, although it faces a parliamentary opposition that prefers a more conciliatory policy with Beijing. Finally, there is a political paradox: the small and cheap weapons typical of an asymmetric war (such as drones and missiles portable) are less visible as Commitment sample Budget, despite its greatest efficiency.
The “military” vs. society. He WSJ added Another “but” very important to the new strategy. Beyond the doctrine and weapons, the biggest Achilles heel of the Taiwanese defense is its personnel scarcity. With a goal of 215,000 troops, the army had only covered 78% of its places At the end of last year. Demography It does not help: Taiwan has one of the lowest birth rates in the world, and its youth (educated in decades of economic growth and pacification) shows little interest in the military career.
The “mili.” The authorities have extended the mandatory service four to twelve monthssalaries have risen up to $ 400 a month and have modernized military accommodations. At the same time, recruitment campaigns that appeal to patriotism and youth idealism have been launched.
It is also reversing to improve the mobilization of reserves, a key component to face a prolonged conflict. The formation of the conscripts has changed radically: now Soldiers are trained In the use of drones, Stinger missiles and defense maneuvers in realistic scenarios, abandoning the old training routine in contact without contact with advanced armament.
The importance of the strategic alliance. Although the Taiwanese plan presupposes that the United States will go to its defense, that support is not insured. After seeing how Trump reduced the support to Ukraine, Taipéi seeks convince Washington that your defensive effort justifies an eventual intervention. Bilateral military cooperation is still under development and, According to analystsa lot is missing for both forces to execute real joint operations.
Hence the agreement that We count a few months ago And that Taiwanese officials admit that they have no experience in modern war and need to learn from those who do, that is, from American army. However, the Pentagon has not made public comments on the degree of joint preparation. In that sense, the island seeks not only to equip yourself, but also coordinate doctrinal and operationally With Washington, aware that his survival could depend on both his own advances and on the political will of the United States to intervene the time.
Between urgency and reality. In short, the success or failure of the new Taiwanese defense strategy will depend not only on available time and military muscle, but also on internal support and political will both local and foreign. Taiwan is trying to reinvent its defensive capacity with unprecedented speed, in a context of growing regional pressure, low war experience, demographic challenges and political polarization.
Ultimately, its objective is not (it has never been at all) to win a war against China, but to make it expensive enough, slow and painful so that, in essence, it never begins.
Image | 總統府
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