Tehran has a gigantic “Plan B”

“A single shot at one of our men or ships, and he would make a good deal of Kharg Island. He would come in and take it.” The phrase could have been written this morning on the social network Truth Social, but it is almost forty years old. American President Donald Trump was already fantasizing in 1988, during an interview with Guardianwith taking over the main Iranian oil terminal. Today, four decades later and in the midst of the Third Gulf War, that old script has jumped from the paper to the Pentagon crisis room. For influential figures in Washington, such as Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, the equation is simple: He who controls Kharg, controls the fate of the war. The prevailing idea is that this island of just 20 square kilometers functions as an “off button” for the ayatollah regime. However, this one-dimensional vision collides head-on with a much more complex reality. Washington believes that taking this terminal will subdue Tehran, but they have forgotten that the Islamic Republic has been building a gigantic “Plan B” for years to survive precisely this scenario. Kharg: the untouchable heart. To understand America’s obsession, you have to look at the numbers. Kharg Island is the true economic heart of Iran. Located about 25 kilometers from the coast in the Persian Gulf, its deep waters allow supertankers to dock that the continental coast cannot accommodate. He usually travels there 90% of the country’s crude oil exportsgenerating annual revenues of $78 billion that directly finance the Iranian military. Even though the war began in late February 2026 and the United States and Israel have bombed thousands of targets, the island’s oil infrastructure remains strangely intact, and the reason is economic. Analysts at JP Morgan and Chatham House They warn that destroying Kharg It would cause an earthquake in global markets, shooting up the price of a barrel to $150. “Plan B”. This is where the American strategy breaks down, just as Javier Blas explainsenergy columnist Bloomberg. The idea that capturing Kharg will subdue Tehran is, in Blas’s words, “fanciful.” Iran does not depend on a single faucet. If Kharg falls or is blocked, the regime would immediately activate its network of secondary terminals: Jask: It is the strategic jewel of “Plan B”. Located in the Arabian Sea, it allows Iran to export oil, completely bypassing the disputed Strait of Hormuz. According to Blas, it could pump about 300,000 barrels per day. Lavan, Sirri and Qeshm: These three islands within the Persian Gulf have a combined capacity of another 200,000 to 300,000 barrels per day. The treasure of derivatives: Iran does not only live off crude oil. It exports another million barrels per day of natural gas liquids (NGL) and refined products (naphtha, liquefied gas) from terminals such as Assaluyeh, Bandar Mahshahr and Abadan. It is their second most lucrative source of income. As Javier Blas explains, To truly choke off the flow of petrodollars, Trump would have to not only take Kharg, but capture all of these terminals simultaneously. Otherwise, a constant flow of barrels would continue to sustain the Iranian war effort. Besides, as I already explained in Xatakathe war has not sunk the Iranian oil business, it has accelerated it. The failed ultimatum: a step back from Trump? Washington’s strategy until now was shifting from bombing to occupation. As my colleague Miguel Jorge has detailedthe Pentagon is accelerating the deployment of the USS Boxer amphibious group and thousands of Marines to the region. The objective would be to take physical control of the island to use it as a negotiating lever and force the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran maintains blocked. In fact, as you have had access AP NewsTrump gave Iran 48 hours to open the strait under threat of “wiping its power plants off the map.” However, hours before the deadline expired, the president backed down. through your Truth Social account: “I am pleased to report that the United States, and the country of Iran, have had, over the past two days, good and productive talks (…) I have instructed the War Department to postpone any and all military attacks against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a period of five days, subject to the success of the ongoing meetings.” Iranian state media, for its part, They quickly denied any direct negotiations and stated that the American president “withdrew for fear of Iran’s response.” The threat of regional destruction. Added to this is the doctrine of “mutual assured destruction” at the regional level. If Trump attacks Iran’s energy infrastructure or takes Kharg, Tehran has vowed to respond with fire. According to AP NewsIran’s Defense Council has threatened to mine the entire Persian Gulf (“like in the 1980s,” they warned) and bomb power and desalination plants in Arab countries allied to the United States, including the Barakah nuclear plant in the United Arab Emirates. Finally, recent history works against the White House. Javier Blas remember that during the campaign of Trump’s “maximum pressure” between 2020 and 2022, Iranian crude oil exports fell by 90%, below 250,000 barrels per day for months. Despite extreme financial pain, the regime did not collapse. To think that they will give in today, when they started from a record production of almost 5 million barrels of liquid petroleum per day (the highest in 46 years), is to ignore the lessons of the past. Washington’s miscalculation. Donald Trump’s fixation on Kharg Island belongs to an era when brute American force rarely met with asymmetrical resistance. Occupying this tiny patch of land in the Persian Gulf may seem like the perfect coup d’état to force a quick outcome, but the reality on the ground is stubborn. By focusing its sights on a single objective, Washington underestimates the resilience of a regime that has been preparing for economic and military isolation for decades. If the Marines manage to plant their flag in Kharg, they will discover that they have not shut down the Iranian … Read more

the toxic hell of Tehran after the bombing of the worst fuel in the world

The water in emergency reserves is no longer transparent; It has turned a thick black. The city’s once passable streets are covered in a slippery, dark layer. “Night became morning and morning, with all the smoke, became night again,” said one astonished resident. These are not scenes from a dystopian movie, but the reality that describe The New York Times after the bombings on the oil infrastructure in Iran. The attacks have left Tehran residents facing a rain laden with oil and toxins that stains cars, roofs and hanging clothes. Faced with this unprecedented situation, the Iranian authorities and the Red Crescent have been forced to ask the more than 9 million inhabitants of the capital to lock themselves in their homes, with severe warnings for children, the elderly and pregnant women. What falls from the sky is no longer just water; It’s poison. A fog that reaches space. The constant military bombings against multiple fuel facilities in and around Tehran, such as the Shahran and Aqdasieh depots, have left a black scar. As detailed GuardianDays after the impacts, satellite images showed that the facilities were still burning, sending columns of dense smoke into the atmosphere. But the problem is aggravated by the type of fuel that burns. An exhaustive analysis of The New York Times reveals that the clouds They are extraordinarily toxic because Iran burns and stores large quantities of “mazut.” This is a very low quality residual fuel, the “bottom of the barrel” that remains after refining the oil, and which contains very high levels of sulfur. Although much of the world prohibits its use, Iran depends on it due to its aging refineries and international sanctions. And it started to rain black. When the facilities were blown up, smoke laden with soot, sulfur dioxide and nitrogen compounds rose to the skies. Why did it rain black? Akshay Deoras, scientist at the University of Reading consulted by Guardianand the magazine Nature They explain it with a clear metaphor: the raindrops acted like “sponges or magnets”, absorbing all the pollutants and oil suspended in the air before collapsing on the city. Furthermore, Tehran is a victim of its own geography. As the magazine explains NaturelThe city is surrounded by the Alborz mountains. This generates a phenomenon known as “thermal inversion,” where a layer of warm air traps cold, contaminated air near the ground, functioning as a lid that prevents toxicity from dispersing. The invisible enemy. The citizens they expressed thatAlmost instantly, they began to suffer headaches, eye and skin irritation, and severe breathing difficulties. The Iranian Red Crescent issued urgent alerts warning that the mixture of humidity and sulfur dioxide was generating acid rain, capable of causing chemical burns on the skin. However, the medical community’s real fear is long-term. This is the “invisible enemy” that Professor Armin Sorooshian talks about in The Conversation. Not only do explosions release petroleum smoke, but the ammunition itself contains heavy metals such as lead and mercury. Exposure to fine particles (PM2.5) that penetrate deep into the lungs brings with it a devastating legacy. As John Balmes, professor emeritus at the University of California, warns, in The New York Times: “Can you imagine a fire in an oil depot in Manhattan? That’s what we’re talking about.” Experts predict a future increase in cardiovascular disease, cognitive damage, DNA alterations and various types of cancer due to the carcinogens present, such as benzene. The threat also filters into what the population drinks and eats. The World Health Organization (WHO) and the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) have warned that spilled oil and toxic rain are contaminating groundwater, public canals and farmland, poisoning the food chain in a country already suffering from a severe drought. Beyond: ecocide. The magnitude of the disaster brings legal loopholes and massive collateral damage to the table. Iran has called the attacks “ecocide,” a term that makes sense when analyzing international law. The legal limbo that allows this horror. It may seem paradoxical, but bombing a fuel tank is not technically a chemical attack. Expert Alexandra R. Harrington explained it in detail in The Conversation: Although the Geneva Conventions prohibit destroying civil infrastructure, they do not specifically shield gasoline tanks or industrial products. Added to this is that international treaties on chemical weapons only punish the use of weapons manufactured expressly for this purpose. The result? A huge legal loophole that allows a refinery to explode and an entire city to be poisoned without having fired a single factory-made toxic missile. A black sea in the Gulf. The disaster is not only in the sky of Tehran. If we look towards the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, the war has turned the water into another ground zero after direct hits against oil tankers and desalination plants. Oil spills are already spreading across the sea, putting local fishing communities on the ropes and drowning coral reefs. Species that were already on the verge of extinction, like dugongsthey are now swimming in a death trap. The smoke that crossed half the world. The gigantic column of black smoke that was born in the Iranian deposits has not remained stagnant there. The currents have been dragged eastwarddrawing a dark line over Afghanistan and China until it sneaks into Russian airspace. The big fear now is that if all that accumulated soot falls on the high mountain ranges, it will act as a magnet for the sun and drastically accelerate the melting of the glaciers. The hidden climate bill. There is collateral damage that is hardly talked about and that Deutsche Welle has put on the table: The military machinery is an insatiable devourer of fossil fuels. Bombings and troop movements are injecting millions of tons of CO2 into the atmosphere in record time. The most frustrating thing about this situation is that the current climate agreements have a “fine print” that exempts countries from accounting for emissions derived from war in their official balance sheets. An indelible toxic legacy. Historically, … Read more

Log In

Forgot password?

Forgot password?

Enter your account data and we will send you a link to reset your password.

Your password reset link appears to be invalid or expired.

Log in

Privacy Policy

Add to Collection

No Collections

Here you'll find all collections you've created before.