Tehran has a gigantic “Plan B”
“A single shot at one of our men or ships, and he would make a good deal of Kharg Island. He would come in and take it.” The phrase could have been written this morning on the social network Truth Social, but it is almost forty years old. American President Donald Trump was already fantasizing in 1988, during an interview with Guardianwith taking over the main Iranian oil terminal. Today, four decades later and in the midst of the Third Gulf War, that old script has jumped from the paper to the Pentagon crisis room. For influential figures in Washington, such as Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, the equation is simple: He who controls Kharg, controls the fate of the war. The prevailing idea is that this island of just 20 square kilometers functions as an “off button” for the ayatollah regime. However, this one-dimensional vision collides head-on with a much more complex reality. Washington believes that taking this terminal will subdue Tehran, but they have forgotten that the Islamic Republic has been building a gigantic “Plan B” for years to survive precisely this scenario. Kharg: the untouchable heart. To understand America’s obsession, you have to look at the numbers. Kharg Island is the true economic heart of Iran. Located about 25 kilometers from the coast in the Persian Gulf, its deep waters allow supertankers to dock that the continental coast cannot accommodate. He usually travels there 90% of the country’s crude oil exportsgenerating annual revenues of $78 billion that directly finance the Iranian military. Even though the war began in late February 2026 and the United States and Israel have bombed thousands of targets, the island’s oil infrastructure remains strangely intact, and the reason is economic. Analysts at JP Morgan and Chatham House They warn that destroying Kharg It would cause an earthquake in global markets, shooting up the price of a barrel to $150. “Plan B”. This is where the American strategy breaks down, just as Javier Blas explainsenergy columnist Bloomberg. The idea that capturing Kharg will subdue Tehran is, in Blas’s words, “fanciful.” Iran does not depend on a single faucet. If Kharg falls or is blocked, the regime would immediately activate its network of secondary terminals: Jask: It is the strategic jewel of “Plan B”. Located in the Arabian Sea, it allows Iran to export oil, completely bypassing the disputed Strait of Hormuz. According to Blas, it could pump about 300,000 barrels per day. Lavan, Sirri and Qeshm: These three islands within the Persian Gulf have a combined capacity of another 200,000 to 300,000 barrels per day. The treasure of derivatives: Iran does not only live off crude oil. It exports another million barrels per day of natural gas liquids (NGL) and refined products (naphtha, liquefied gas) from terminals such as Assaluyeh, Bandar Mahshahr and Abadan. It is their second most lucrative source of income. As Javier Blas explains, To truly choke off the flow of petrodollars, Trump would have to not only take Kharg, but capture all of these terminals simultaneously. Otherwise, a constant flow of barrels would continue to sustain the Iranian war effort. Besides, as I already explained in Xatakathe war has not sunk the Iranian oil business, it has accelerated it. The failed ultimatum: a step back from Trump? Washington’s strategy until now was shifting from bombing to occupation. As my colleague Miguel Jorge has detailedthe Pentagon is accelerating the deployment of the USS Boxer amphibious group and thousands of Marines to the region. The objective would be to take physical control of the island to use it as a negotiating lever and force the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran maintains blocked. In fact, as you have had access AP NewsTrump gave Iran 48 hours to open the strait under threat of “wiping its power plants off the map.” However, hours before the deadline expired, the president backed down. through your Truth Social account: “I am pleased to report that the United States, and the country of Iran, have had, over the past two days, good and productive talks (…) I have instructed the War Department to postpone any and all military attacks against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a period of five days, subject to the success of the ongoing meetings.” Iranian state media, for its part, They quickly denied any direct negotiations and stated that the American president “withdrew for fear of Iran’s response.” The threat of regional destruction. Added to this is the doctrine of “mutual assured destruction” at the regional level. If Trump attacks Iran’s energy infrastructure or takes Kharg, Tehran has vowed to respond with fire. According to AP NewsIran’s Defense Council has threatened to mine the entire Persian Gulf (“like in the 1980s,” they warned) and bomb power and desalination plants in Arab countries allied to the United States, including the Barakah nuclear plant in the United Arab Emirates. Finally, recent history works against the White House. Javier Blas remember that during the campaign of Trump’s “maximum pressure” between 2020 and 2022, Iranian crude oil exports fell by 90%, below 250,000 barrels per day for months. Despite extreme financial pain, the regime did not collapse. To think that they will give in today, when they started from a record production of almost 5 million barrels of liquid petroleum per day (the highest in 46 years), is to ignore the lessons of the past. Washington’s miscalculation. Donald Trump’s fixation on Kharg Island belongs to an era when brute American force rarely met with asymmetrical resistance. Occupying this tiny patch of land in the Persian Gulf may seem like the perfect coup d’état to force a quick outcome, but the reality on the ground is stubborn. By focusing its sights on a single objective, Washington underestimates the resilience of a regime that has been preparing for economic and military isolation for decades. If the Marines manage to plant their flag in Kharg, they will discover that they have not shut down the Iranian … Read more