probability

A study rises to 90% the probability that we see a black hole exploit. Physicists have become nervous

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At some point in the next 10 years we are probably witnessing the explosion of a black hole, according to a new model published in Physical Review Letters. In the light of the telescopes, this very powerful event has the potential to confirm the most famous theory of Stephen Hawking and give us a catalog of unknown particles of the universe. Short. A team of theoretical physicists of the University of Massachusetts Amherst It has recalculated the probability of seeing live the violent explosion of a black hole under the assumption that there are primary black holes in hibernation. Its conclusion is that the most potentially transformative event of modern cosmology could be just around the corner: they calculate more than 90% possibilities that we witness the explosion of a primary black hole during the next decade, under the assumptions posed by the model. The Fat Prize for Physics. Seeing a black hole would be transformer in at least three fronts. It would be the first direct observation of the Hawking radiationthe famous theory of 1970 with which Stephen Hawking postulated that black holes losing mass slowly emitting particles, so they are not completely black. In addition, it is believed that A black hole in evaporation emits all fundamental particles whose mass is lower than its temperature. Therefore, the explosion of a black hole should reveal from the electrons and quarks that we know, to hypothetical particles of dark matter and others completely unknown to science. Finally, the event would confirm the primary black holes. Unlike the black holes that are formed by the collapse of mass stars, it is believed that the primordials were formed in the extreme conditions of the universe less than a second after the Big Bang. “I would completely revolutionize physics and help us rewrite the history of the universe,” says Joaquim Iguaz Juan, co -author of the study. How a black hole explodes. The idea that black holes can explode directly derives from Hawking radiation. The theory says that the lighter a black hole, the higher its temperature and faster emits particles. This creates an uncontrolled process: as it radiates, loses mass and heats up even more. Consequently, it radiates at an increasing rate until, in its final moments, it fades into an explosion of high energy radiation (mainly gamma rays). The problem is that, until now, physicists believed that the chances of seeing such an event were infinitesimal. These calculations, based on black holes without electric charge (black schwarzschild holes), suggested that explosions occur, at most, once every 100,000 years. With those chances, we would have to be very lucky to see one. Where that 90% probability comes from. The researchers decided to question the departure assumption: what if the primary black holes are not electrically neutral? The new hypothesis proposes the existence of a force similar to electromagnetism, But in the dark sector: With a “dark photon” and a very heavy “dark electron”. If a primary black hole was formed with a small dark electric charge, its destination would change completely. This mechanism works as a brake. As the black hole loses mass due to hawking radiation, its load/mass ratio increases, causing its temperature to drastically, which submits it to a state of hibernation for billions of years. After that time, the dark electric field near the horizon becomes so intense that he discharges the black hole, causing the final explosion that we have been waiting for. Why does this increase the chances of observation? Because this long stability period allows much lighter black holes (and, therefore, much more numerous) survive to this day. A greater number of nearby candidates drastically increases the local explosions rate, passing from one every 100,000 years to one every 10 years. We have the technology to see it. The best part is that we do not need to build new technology. Gamma ray observatories as Hawc in Mexico And Lhaaso in China are already scanning the sky and are perfectly able to detect the outbreak of a nearby primary black hole, at a distance of up to 0.3 light years. “We already have the technology to observe these explosions, so we should be prepared,” says Michael Baker, lead author of the study. If it happened, it would be a historical moment. We would be seeing, for the first time, the final echo of the creation of the universe, a first look at the most fundamental secrets of the cosmos in a single and spectacular outbreak of light. In Xataka | Stephen Hawking made a prediction on black holes in 1971. A new signal has been overwhelmed

The 2020 chips crisis will be a joke compared to that with a high probability will come in 2035

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The crisis of the chips that started in 2020 and lasted until well into 2023 was The result of a perfect storm. The Covid-19 pandemia triggered the demand for electronic devices, and, at the same time, at the same time, degraded production capacity of many companies. In addition, the commercial war between the US and China, the severe climatic events and several fires in critical facilities The global distribution chain of integrated circuits overflowed almost combined. Now, in full 2025, we are in a very different situation. The scarcity of semiconductors has been left behind, but According to a report Prepared by the consulting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers (PWC) is maturing a new crisis with the ability to achieve its peak in 2035. A crisis that can presumably end with a third of the global chips supply in a decade. There are ten years left, it is true, but probably its first effects will be presented much earlier. Serious droughts are already committing copper mining The PWC report holds something very important: if the weather continues to evolve as it has done during the last decade and the droughts are aggravated by the manufacture of integrated circuits will resent drastically. And it will do so because copper mining depends inevitably on available water resources. According to the CSIRO organization (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization), The National Science Agency of Australia, to obtain 19 kg of copper it is necessary to use about 1,600 liters of water. These figures clearly illustrate the deep dependence of water copper mining. According to the International Copper Association Currently almost 28 million tons of this chemical element are consumed annually, and presumably this figure will increase a lot over the next few years. As we can intuit, to process this amount of copper it is necessary to use a lot of water, and this resource is increasingly scarce due to The effects of climate change. In fact, PWC estimates that semiconductor production will reduce 58% in 2050 If the weather continues to evolve as it is doing now. The production of semiconductors will reduce 58% in 2050 if the weather continues to evolve as it is doing now This forecast does not invite us at all to be optimistic, especially in a context in which chips are increasingly important and their demand does not cease to increase. Copper is used for many other things, but its role in the integrated circuit industry is essential. And it is because its physicochemical and electrical properties make it ideal to participate in the manufacture of interconnections within the integrated circuits, as well as in the production of all types of wiring and printed circuit plates (PCB). Its most appreciated properties are its high electrical conductivity, its outstanding thermal conductivity, its ductility and its corrosion resistance. For several decades, aluminum occupied the place in the chips industry in which copper now resides, but this last metal finally managed to impose itself, although it was not easy. His problem was that he could leak in silicon. This process is known as Dissemination of copper in siliconand it is similar to the electromigration of which We talk to you in this other article To explain why this last phenomenon represents a threat to our electronic devices. In any case, during the diffusion the copper atoms move and infiltrate the crystalline structure of the silicon, degrading it and conditioning its physicochemical properties. Fortunately, IBM found the solution to this problem in 1998. His researchers realized that it was possible to put a lining for copper interconnections capable of acting as a barrier, and, therefore, of preventing copper atoms from infiltrating the silicon. This strategy was so effective that the semiconductor industry adopted it and has maintained it so far. Image | TSMC More information | SCMP In Xataka | The two most important chip companies in China have a problem: the 5 Nm have been choked

The new space race has created Boomerang scrap. The probability that clash against a plane has also increased

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We are launching more rockets to space than ever. Between China and Spacex, they occur releases every few days in a new space race with multiple objectives on the horizon. It’s something that is lowering space transportationbut also generates a new problem: the amount of scrap that orbits our planet. And this generates another conflict: with more satellites and rockets in orbit, the risk that a fragment of some of them hit a plane is increasingly high. At the University of British Columbia they have proposed to analyze it and have determined that, to anyone’s surprise, the consequences of the clash would be devastating. The problem. Beyond the test rockets, transport of goods and people, something that is causing more and more launching are the satellites that bring the internet to any corner. There are several players in this segment, but Spacex carries the front with its program Starlink. These satellites are sent in rockets that, when they fulfill their function, lose height and return to the planet. Some partially disintegrate and others, to the re -enter the atmosphere without controlthey fall anywhere. The ocean is usually the main receptacle, it is also possible that they fall in urban areas or that, on their way, they clash against a plane. The probability. First of all, tranquility: the risk that these space debris impact an plane is still low, very low. According to The Aerospace Corporation, in 2021 (when they were thrown, but it was not the current fever), that risk was one between 100,000, or 0.001%. The system predicted, taking into account future releases, which by 2035 would rise to seven out of 10,000, or what is equal to 0.07%. It is, as we say, a low probability, but that is there. In the study From the University of British Columbia they have analyzed how all this depends on air traffic density. Taking as an example the traffic of September 1, 2023, and the United States as a area, we can see that, every year, there is a 99% probability that the resentments of rocket bodies occur in green areas, 75% in the yellow, 26% in oranges and 0.8% in red. Las Rojas are the most activity areas, such as the main airports, oranges are large cities and green and green move away from urban nuclei and, therefore, from the agglomeration of airplanes. Long March 5B. Beyond the direct clash of this space scrap against a plane, something whose probability remains exceptionally low, there is another problem: the danger of happening and leads to the decision to cut the airspace. On November 4, 2022, the body of the Long March 5B rocket, 20 tons of weight, re -entered the atmosphere, falling on the Pacific Ocean. All good, but it might not have been like this: the entrance location was the product of chance, since the body of the rocket was abandoned in the orbit and a planned design was not made for the re -entry of the remains. Consequences. The night before the reentry, different surveillance agencies, as well as the European Air Safety Agency, issued reports in which they encouraged national authorities to restrict airspace “in a corridor of at least 70 kilometers and up to 120 kilometers on each side of the estimated reentry trajectory ”of the rocket. Spanish and French authorities complied with this and They closed part of their airspace. As a result, 645 flights were delayed, with an average of 29 minutes per plane. In addition, some airplanes that were in full flight had to return to the origin airport or take a detour. It was the evidence of a lack of planning, anticipation and control over this space scrap. Interestingly, Portugal, Italy and Greece did not make the decision to close, generating other problems in their airports due to the unexpected increase in air traffic due to deviant flights. In purple, the airspace closed by the Long March 5B. In blue, his career and fall Solutions. Unfortunately, although this is a problem that will go more, controlling the reentry of space debris is not something that has an immediate solution. The researchers propose that those responsible for launching rockets also invest in controllable reentry technologies so that they do not enter the atmosphere unpredictably. These technologies include engines capable of re -effective to partially direct the rocket, but also a better mission planning so that the rocket falls into a remote area of ​​the ocean, far from populations and, evidently, air traffic. The problem is that, although the technology is there, they estimate that less than 35% of the launches perform these controlled inputs and, with 2,300 bodies in orbit with an annual increase of between 30 and 40 bodies, the risks will continue to increase. In 2001, the titanium engine coating of the third stage of a Delta 2, with a weight of approximately 70 kg, landed in Saudi Arabia, about 240 km from the capital Obviously, it is also a huge money expense, so achievements such as catch the Starship propeller and the advances of Spacex engineers so as not to have launch and throw rockets They are so important. And a global protocol is also necessary to manage these resentments and make coordinated decisions, not to delegate everything in an aeronautical industry that is not responsible. In the end, it is much more likely that there are alterations in air traffic due to this space garbage than to the clash of one of these remains with a plane, but whenever this probability is not zero, solutions must be contemplated. Images | Nature, Spacex In Xataka | The capture of the Super Heavy changes everything: Spacex has gone from being 9 years ahead of the industry to not having a rival

There is a 2% probability that the asteroid impact the earth, but we will not know how much it measures until the webb observes it

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He Asteroid 2024 YR4 He has aroused unusual interest since his discovery on December 27. Although the probability of impact with the earth remains very low, has risen from 1 to 2% As new observations are obtained. However, astronomers are having difficulty measuring their size and have decided to resort to the most powerful space telescope in history to get out of doubt. There is a problem in how an asteroid is measured. Until now, the size estimates of 2024 YR4 have oscillated between 40 and 90 meters in diameter, a too wide range to assess the danger that would represent an eventual impact with our planet. This lack of precision has a reason and is that The size of the asteroid is calculated from the reflected visible lighta method that depends on the reflectivity of its surface. 2024 YR4 could be an object of 40 meters very reflective or an object of 90 meters very dark. As well as any intermediate option. The James Webb space telescope to the rescue. Unlike other observatories, The 10,000 million dollar telescopeoperated by NASA, ESA and the Canadian space agency, does not observe the visible spectrum, but the infrared spectrum, and with an unprecedented sensitivity. Astronomers will allocate hours of webb use to analyze the infrared light emitted by the asteroid to obtain a more precise measurement of its size and temperature. With luck, it will allow them to discern whether 2024 YR4 is at the lower or upper end of the estimated range, crucial information to better evaluate the consequences of their unlikely but possible impact. Two rounds of observation are planned. Space agencies have foreseen Two rounds of crucial observations With the Webb Telescope. The first will take place in early March, when the asteroid is at its point of greatest brightness and visibility for the telescope. The second round, scheduled for May, will allow scientists to study how the object temperature varies as it moves away from the sun, in addition to continuing to obtain data on its trajectory when the object has ceased to be visible by terrestrial telescopes. Why fluctuate the probability of impact. The 2% estimate is the most up -to -date ES has provided so far (NASA publishes a 2.1% estimate). The figure varies constantly because the calculations have been incorporating new observations that reduce the uncertainty of their trajectory. These fluctuations are, in fact, typical behavior in the estimation of the impact risk of newly discovered objects. NASA planetary defense equipment and ESA are based on orbital dynamic systems (such as Scout, Sentry, Meerkat and Aegis) that generate multiple possible trajectories for the asteroid. As less likely orbits are discarded, targeting on Earth may increase the fraction of possible impacts, although, over time, additional observations allow the threat to definitively discard. If this were not the case with 2024 YR4, we would be talking about a meteorite that could fall in countries as populated as Colombia, Nigeria or India on January 22, 2032. Then we would start talking about a mission to divert it, a task in the that We already have some practice. Image | Two of the 18 mirrors of the Webb Telescope (NASA/C. GUNN) In Xataka | The impact probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 has risen to 1.6%. The UN has already activated a special protocol

The probability that the asteroid falls on Earth has risen to 2.3%. Even the Webb Telescope is monitoring it

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The last NASA calculations They place the probability that the asteroid 2024 YR4 impact with the land by 2.3%, a figure that the European Space Agency (ESA) has confirmed with Its own 2.27% estimate. For those who have lost their account, in just one week of observations We have gone from 1 between 83 possibilities that the asteroid crosses the planet Earth to 1 between 43. The options are still low, but they are high enough for the offices of NASA planetary defense and that They have intensified their monitoring efforts. To the James Webb space telescope, 10,000 million dollars, will be monitoring The little asteroid. 2024 YR4 is not much, but with A diameter of between 40 and 90 meterscould destroy an entire city if it survived the reentry and impact an urban area. When? On January 22, 2032. Where? At some point in the strip that extends from the East of the Pacific Ocean to northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea and the south of Asia. It should be noted that These impact estimates They are calculated taking as reference the quotient between the diameter of the earth and the width of the area of ​​uncertainty of the asteroid, generated from simulations. The problem: 2024 YR4 is moving away from Earth In an elliptical trajectorywhich hinders its detection with conventional instruments. In a few weeks it will have become so faint that even professional four -meter telescopes have trouble capturing it. As of April, it will be necessary to resort to the Webb or the Vary Large Telescope of the Austral European Observatory to continue watching it until the object reappears In June 2028. The monitoring of the trajectory of an asteroid is a dynamic process that surely gives us a roller coaster of emotions. As more observations from the asteroid and its trajectory have, the probability of impact could increase again and then progressively reduce until reaching zeroconfirming the main hypothesis: that the asteroid will pass by instead of colliding with the earth. If not, the good news is that humanity has experience in asteroid diversion. In 2022, NASA’s dart mission He showed that it is possible to alter the trajectory of a spatial object through a kinetic impact. This historical achievement is the empirical test that we have the technology and knowledge necessary to at least try to protect our planet. Meanwhile, the UN has put on alert the Space Missions Advisory Group (SMPAG), which agreed to meet again at the end of April or early May to study possible mitigation measures in case the probability of impact is maintained or increased . Image | Daniel Bamberger In Xataka | The impact probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 has risen to 1.6%. The UN has already activated a special protocol

The impact probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 has risen to 1.6%. The UN has already activated a special protocol

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In just a few days of observations, the probability that The 2024 YR4 asteroid Impact with the Earth has risen from 1.2 to 1.6%. Once otherwise, there is a 98.4% chance that the newly discovered object passes by long. But the risk of not doing so is high enough for the UN to activate, for the first time, its planetary security protocol. Revised calculations. 2024 YR4 was discovered on December 27 by the latest land impact alert system (Atlas) from Chile, but did not caught the attention of astronomers until it automatically appeared on the NASA Sentry list on December 31 by its impact risk (then just above 1%) with the planet Earth. According to the Updated data which published yesterday the Coordination Center of Objects close to Earth (NEOCC) of the European Space Agency (ESA), the 2024 YR4 asteroid measures between 40 and 90 meters in diameter and has a 1.6% chance of impacting with the Earth on December 22, 2032. He would do it near Ecuador, at some point that goes from northern South America to northern India, passing through central Africa. Meetings in NASA and ESA. We can agree that the probability of impact is still very small, but has put in suspense the Space Missions Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG) of the UN, the committee that coordinates the response to asteroids of more than 50 meters with an impact probability of more than 1% in the next 50 years. With the planetary security protocol officially activated2024 YR4 has triggered, for the moment, two SMPAG meetings. One with the NASA Planetary Defense Coordination Officeand another in Vienna with the experts of the ESE Planetary Defense Office. What the experts have decided. Actively observe the asteroid and meet again at the end of April or early May (or before, if the risk of impact increases significantly) to reassess the situation. The probabilities can change in favor or against time as astronomers make more observations and refine the calculations of the asteroid trajectory. If the asteroid remains greater than 50 meters and the probability of impact is maintained above 1% for the next meeting, the SMPAG will issue a recommendation on future actions to the United Nations External Space Affairs Office (oneo). We will definitely need offices with acronym that is easier to remember if Armageddon comes true. We have some practice. Let’s not forget that humanity has already successfully diverted an asteroid. NASA did as proof of concept in September 2022 with the Dart mission, a ship that Dimorphos’ trajectory slightly divertedthe small moon of the asteroid Didymos. The European Mission Hera He now goes there to study the impact result. Everything we can learn from this test (And the one that China will do in a few months) It could make a difference in future planetary defense missions, the case may be. Images | Astrophyscia Institute of the Canary Islands, NASA/JPL In Xataka | Dart has been a success. The question is whether it will really save us when an asteroid goes to Earth

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