Dorado

a few days ago Dynasty Fine Winesa wine company listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange, had to share the class of information that makes shareholders’ coffee (or wine, as the case may be) choke: their 2025 profit forecast has plummeted more than 50% with respect to 2024. The news might not have interest beyond its board if it were not for the fact that it connects with a larger trend: changes in the Chinese market that have led to the Asian giant ceasing to be the inexhaustible gold mine that the sector imagined in his day. And in part it is due to the guidelines on morality by Xi Jinping. What has happened? That the Western alcohol industry’s dream of finding a new big gold mine in China seems to be slowly receding. And this is especially noticeable in wine cellars. After years of accelerated growth, in which the Asian giant seemed increasingly interested in wines from Australia or France, demand has started to slow down. The signs are clear. has fallen per capita consumption, imports, production and there are companies such as Treasury Wine Estates, Pernord Ricard, Diageo or Dinasty Fine that have seen how it gets complicated the panorama in the country. China is no longer in the news for increasing its world import quota from 1 to 8% in record time to make headlines for the drop in demand. What does the data say? There are many indicators to pull from. Of all, perhaps the most eloquent is the one published by the Interprofessional Wine Organization of Spain (OIVE), based in turn on Chinese customs data. The organization recently revealed that in 2025 imports suffered a decline of 26.7% in volume, although the increase in the average price reduced the fall to 14.6% in terms of value. The “prick” affected exporters like France or Chile. Is it the only indicator? Not at all. Another producing country that has also suffered the ups and downs in the Chinese market is Australia. Although the wineries there received good news in March 2024when Xi Jinpuing lifted the tariffs that penalized his wine exports, the joy was short-lived. A few months ago Wine Australia published a report in which it recognizes that shipments of merchandise to other countries were reduced by 6% in volume and 8% in value in 2025, a decline that is partly explained by the fall in two markets: the United States (-12%) and especially the Chinese one, which contracted another 17%. Are only imports falling? No. Just a year ago the University of Adelaide published a study which shows that the changes in the Chinese wine market are much deeper and more complex. Per capita consumption, for example, skyrocketed during the first decade of the century, then registered fluctuations until 2016 and from that year on it suffered a decline that extends at least until 2022, the last year analyzed. The production curve is not good either. “We have seen how the (Chinese) market has completely dried up,” he complained recently in statements to The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) the owner of a winery that exports wine from New South Wales, Australia. Your case is illustrative. Until 2019, 40% of its profits came from China. The collapse in sales in that market has now translated, however, into a surplus that will force him to let 30% of his grapes rot this year. Has the market changed that much? It seems so. In November 2025 the Hong Kong newspaper South China Morning Post (SCMP) published an extensive report which made its premise clear from the same headline: “European wines stay on the shelves while China looks for cheaper drinks.” In the chronicle he talks about a contraction in the consumption of both premium wines and traditional spirits, while other options such as craft beer seem to be gaining ground. The information is accompanied by a graph that reflects the fall in wine imports between 2017 and 2023. If there were any doubts about whether the trend only affects European or Australian wineries, a few weeks ago The New York Times public another report in which he explains how the drop in demand affects the distilleries of Maotaiin China itself, dedicated to the production of baijiua powerful liquor. Why is demand falling? There are several factors. Influences the economic slowdown and the hangover real estate crisiswhich have in turn affected spending on alcohol, especially when we talk about expensive imported wines. There are also analysts who they point to a change in consumer habits, especially among the youngest. Recently Global Timesa Chinese newspaper linked to the communist government, published a report in which he told precisely how the new generations show less interest in drinking. In that aspect they connect with other societies that live the same phenomenon. Is it the only reason? No. There is another. And although a priori it may seem minor or secondary, it is relevant enough for WSJ I related it directly with the decline of the wine market. Which is it? The position of the Chinese Government. A few months ago the Executive headed by Xi Jinping issued a strict guideline in which it prohibits the serving of alcohol, luxury dishes or cigarettes at official meals. The objective: end excesses. “Extravagant banquets and excessive alcohol consumption were a regular part of official life in China. But such excesses, long criticized by the public, have come under increasing scrutiny. As part of a new push to ensure discipline, China has imposed a widespread ban on alcohol at official receptions,” it proclaims. a statement published in May 2025 by the Information Office, which warns: “Excessive alcohol deteriorates the image of officials.” And is it being fulfilled? Although it cites the rest of the economic and cultural factors that influence demand, WSJ points out the government guideline as one of the factors that explain the change in trend in China. He even shares a concrete example: last year during the conference of a state-owned … Read more