debacle

The Japanese demographic crisis comes from afar. In 2019, we already commented that Japan was extinguishing. In 2018 there were 921,000 births in the country, a worrying number if we take into account that more than 1.3 million Japanese died. That exceptionally low fertility rate It is directly related to a very aging population, so much that it has already been baptized as a “demographic winter.” And it is something that is reflected perfectly in this graph elaborated by Visual Capitalist. And forecasts are not good. Discouraging. We can appreciate the data since the 1950s to see a clear trend that seems to be not changing. On the contrary, everything points to a worsening of a critical situation in the country. There are two very marked moments in the Japanese demographic curve. On the one hand, the population boom that occurred after Second World War. On the other, the unstoppable increase in the population over 65 due to improvements in life. However, at the beginning of the 21st century, the demographic curve began to twist. It is when we see that the amount of population begins to decrease as the amount of aging population takes run at a slope that seems to have no end. Forecast. The data In which they are based for the creation of this graph, they come from the Japan Statistics Office and, beyond the past and current panorama, it offers us an estimate of the country’s future demographic. It is not good and, in this table, we can see the proportion between the total population and those over 65 so far, as well as the projection for 2045: Year Population in millions Population of more than 65 years in millions Percentage 1950 83 4 4.9% 1955 89 5 5.2% 1960 93 5 5.7% 1965 98 6 6.3% 1970 105 7 7.3% 1975 112 10 8.4% 1980 117 19 10.1% 1985 121 14 11.8% 1990 124 16 13% 1995 126 19 15% 2000 127 22 17.4% 2005 128 25 19.6% 2010 128 29 22.8% 2015 127 33 26.3% 2020 126 36 28.6% 2023 124 36 29.4% 2024 124 36 29.3% 2030 123 37 30.1% 2035 120 38 21.9% 2040 117 41 34.8% 2045 113 41 36.4% Consequences. It is not necessary to wait for that 36.4% of the population over 65 to see the consequences: it is something that Japanese society is already experiencing. A clear example is schools: in the absence of children, there are schools that They are being reconciled in other spacessuch as aquariums or sake factories. It is so devastating that it is estimated that 450 centers close every year. Between 2002 and 2020, almost 9,000 closed and, if the trend continues, there are those who consider that, on January 5, 2720, There will only be a child under 14 in the country And long before, All Japanese will swell the same. It is an apocalyptic scenario, almost identical to that seen in the movie ‘Children of men’, but this does not only affect schools. Before the lack of young employees, there are companies that They are already delegating to robots To do the job and diaper companies they have reinvented themselves as adult diaper companies. Not to mention the pension system: without young workers to support it, the pyramid collapses. Measures. From the government, of course, they are taking measures. An example is that, in a curious movement, They want to attract digital nomads. They have also opened to something unusual: companies like McDonald’s have opened their arms to Workers with colored hair. Until not so long, the company prohibited its workers from dying hair and having certain beards, measures that have had to relax due to that demographic fun. There are also government measures, such as Free nursery in Tokyo to promote birth and four -day work week to support family reconciliation. Yuriko Koike, governor of Tokyo, said there was no time to lose and acknowledged that the crisis will not disappear for itself. Success cases. Missing time to see the green outbreaks of the new policies and attitudes of the government and companies in birth, but there are examples within the Japanese society that can give wings to recovery. One of them is Nagi’s. It is a small town that has been placing the problem of birth in the upper area of ​​its agenda years. Apart from the aid for parenting and nurseries, they do not pay books or school materials. There are also incentives such as family rents for a monthly rate of about 345 euros to the change or medical expenses fully covered for minors. Of course, they did not succeed from one day to another and get a rate close to the three points (when the country is closer to a single point) is something that took them two decades and sacrifices, such as the cut in public works projects . They are not the only. Nagi’s change of thought and model has not been simple and there are other measures involved, such as charging tourists for entering into the “miracle” in the town and the incentive for young couples who want to move to Nagi. We need to see how that case of individual success can be extended to a country, but Japan is not the only dramatic case worldwide and, above all, in the Asian territory. South Korea is an example, with 20% of the population over 65 and an enlightening national debate: At what age someone is ‘old man’. In China they do not get rid and, despite His efforts, tax advantagesyou aid, incentives And even his effort for campaign In favor of love and marriages, 2024 closed as the third consecutive year losing population. A quick solution seems immigration, something that Several countries are experiencingbut it is certainly a problem whose solution is not simple and that will not be solved overnight. In Xataka | Demographers have been wondering for centuries when the human population will stop growing. It already has … Read more