Some extremely complicated days are coming

If two years ago someone would have told us that today we would be wishing If it stopped raining, we wouldn’t have believed it. But reality always exceeds our expectations and, this week, it is about to also exceed the hydrological limits of the south and west of the country.

And with the terrain already saturated after weeks of storms and more storms, AEMET rain warning “intense and extraordinarily persistent” that can trigger floods, floods and landslides, as well as strong winds and maritime storms.

We don’t know what’s coming to us.

What is going to happen? At a technical level, on the night of Tuesday to Wednesday the arrival of the high-impact storm Leonardo (fed by a current of humid subtropical air) will initiate an episode of precipitation that can turn the entire third of the peninsula and many points in the west of the country upside down.

He black point is in Grazalemathe Ronda mountain range and the Strait of Gibraltar with up to 250 mm of rain in 24 hours. To this we must add Sierra Nevada, which, although it will receive about 100 mm, the rise in the snow level can cause a massive thaw that puts the entire Genil basin and the rivers of the Mediterranean coast in check.

In general, any point in the south facing windward and areas with orographic enhancement are candidates to receive a huge hydrometeorological impact.

It is not a specific event. Above all, because adding Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, more than 400 mm are expected in parts of the Béticas. To this we must add the more than 200mm in the upper Guadalquivir and the more than 100mm in the basin. That is, a lot of water. Something that added to that “The soil is clay and its use is agricultural.“, will make the filtration very poor.

The entire Guadalquivir valley from Córdoba onwards is activating eviction plans because the overflowing of the river is a risk that cannot be ignored.

Beyond the floods. Because yes, floods and overflows are possibly the main problem and the Hydrographic Confederations are working at full speed to regulate the levels of channels and reservoirs in anticipation. However, the problems are many and landslides that can cut roads, damage buildings and destroy basic infrastructure are not minor.

Why is this happening? Or, rather, why is it going to happen? And the key to all this is the combination between “it has already rained a lot” with “more is coming.” When the soil is near saturation (and, right now, it is), the extra rain is almost automatically transformed into runoff: streams and ravines grow quickly and the risk of flooding increases even without a specific “waterspout” being necessary.

Here, therefore, the problem is not so much in the sky (that too) but in the orography. We will see persistent rains that will accumulate enormous amounts in a few hours and the insufficiency of drainage infrastructure will do the rest.

In other words, if we have to summarize everything we are going to experience in the next few hours and days, the precise word is “be careful.” Great care.

Image | ECMWF

In Xataka | What seemed like a “festival of storms” has turned into a nightmare: AEMET prepares for “the highest hydrometeorological impacts in the world”