sell more pigs in China

There is no war without collateral effects. AND Commercial They are no exception. In full climb of the tariff pulse between the US and China, with Gravel crossings of more than 100% to their exports and the uncertainty of how these rates will affect the Milmillonario Comercio Between both countries, the Spanish pig sector seems to have encountered an unexpected “Window of opportunity”. The reason? The US is a relevant supplier of pork for China, but from now on it will be penalized by tariffs, leaving an important (and tempting) hollow in the Asian market.

And Spain already It has moved token (with agreements to the highest level) to expand your presence in Chinese butchers.

A percentage: 125%. At the end of last year, when Trump (then still elected president) already loved the tariffs to China, Canada or Mexico, from Beijing They launched a notice To navigators: “No one wins a commercial war.” Months later already waiting to see how the tariff pulse evolves, time seems to prove him right. Washington has raised 145% (including 20% for fentanyl) The rates imposed on Chinese exports to the US while the Xi Jinping Executive has reacted by increasing its own to the goods “Made in USA “ 125%.

A sector: the pig. This crossing of encumbrances has made the commercial war (extendable to other countries) be intensified between Washington and Beijing, with derivations to multiple sectors. Among all there is one that Spain looks with special interest: pig. The reason is very simple. China is A huge producerbut also a great market that matters every year hundreds of thousands of tons and mobilizes thousands of millions of dollars. And to show a button: according to Reuters, in 2023 China received pork (including casquery) by value of 6,000 million.

In that generous flow of swine merchandise to the Chinese market, the US plays a relevant role. The forecasts for 2024 passed through the US It was consolidated as one of the large pork exporters worldwide, with a global flow of 3.24 million of metric tons. In one of its latest balances, US Meat Exportation (USMEF) states that, although last year pork exports to China/Hong Kong descended 6%, they exceeded the 467,200 tonswith a value of approximately 1,140 million dollars.

One question: And now what? The big question after the application of 125% tariffs to US exports to China and the battery of Bureaucratic countermeasures displayed by Beijing is … how will they affect that flow of pork directed to the Chinese market? Will it remain competitive or leave a hole? The question is specially interested in other great producers who have already managed to get a place in the butchers of the Asian giant, such as Brazil or the EU. And within the latter Spain stands out.

This same week AHDB published A report In which he points out that in 2024 China imported 1.06 million tons of pork, 31% less than the previous year, and about 1.15 million tons of “spoils” (casquería), the latter product and has grown up 4% interannual. According to their data, among the great exporters include the EU-27 (with a key weight from Spain), Brazil and the United States.

A country: Spain. As Publish today The country The scenario that have opened the trade war and the 125% tariffs applied by Beijing to the US interests, and much, the Spanish pig sector. After all, the Asian market knows well and in the past it has demonstrated its ability to work on it with figures much higher than the current ones: in 2020, after China had to Sacrifice a good part From his cabin for an outbreak of swine fever, Spain triggered his export there until he added a record volume, with an assessment of 3,117 million of euros, according to The country.

Since then the flow of Spanish pig exports to China was reduced in a sensitive way until it was around 1,066 million of euros in 2024. Different factors have entered at stake, such as The general fall in pork imports in China coinciding with the recovery of the Chinese cabin or the increase in the Spanish pig for the impact of the Ukraine War (influenced the cost of feeding the cattle) or the effects of the Swine respiratory syndrome nationally.

A advice: “Be attentive”. With that backdrop, the sector sees with a special interest both the tariffs from China to the United States and The steps Qua is already giving Spain to recover land in the Asian market. A few days ago the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food of Spain and the General Administration of Chinese Customs signed a protocol for the export of pigs that, In the words of the Moncloa“It will allow expanding the list of authorized products that are exported from Spain.”

“You have to be attentive to the opportunities that arise in this changing future. The export protocol signed on Thursday is another sign that China wants to open its market to new suppliers,” Guiseppe Aloisio reflectsGeneral Director of the National Association of Meat Industries of Spain (ANICE). Although it assumes that part of the hole will probably be assumed by Brazil, it also believes that the new scenario can open an “opportunity sale” to Spain.

A but: demand for dumping. Not everything is opportunities and advantages. And not only for the interest of other great producers such as Brazil (or even Russia) in the Chinese pig market. Maybe Spain and China have approximate positions in recent days, but it does not so much the prospects of the European (and Spanish) pig sector were tarnished by another Beijing movement: The investigation Open in 2024 to EU imports for the suspicions of unfair competition, a movement that was once interpreted as a replica to The decision of Brussels of Apply tariffs To Chinese electric cars.

The key is whether with the beginning of the commercial war that process has gone to the background. “Research Antidumping They are framed in a new context under which we consider that the adoption of any measure would not be positive for any of the parties. We have transferred it to the Chinese authorities and they have taken good note “, The Minister points out of agriculture, Luis Planas. For now, both parties have already signed A protocol Five years extendable to increase the list of pig products that can be exported from Spain.

Images | Veronica White (UNSPLASH) and / Ricardo (UNSPLASH)

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