On the coast of Veracruz, Mexico’s diplomatic and energy machinery has applied the handbrake. The image of the ship Ocean Marinerdocking in Havana on January 9 with 85,000 barrels of crude oil, seems to be the last postcard of an era that is abruptly closing. As confirmed France 24that was the last successful shipment before geopolitics cut off the flow. His replacement, Swift Galaxywas scheduled to sail in mid-January, but his trip was quietly canceled and he disappeared from the logistical calendar of Mexican Petroleum, how they have advanced in The Country.
What happens in Mexican ports is the reflection of a tension that goes beyond commercial matters. After the American intervention in Venezuela on January 3 and the fall of Nicolás Maduro, the president of the United States, Donald Trump, was blunt: “No more money or oil will reach Cuba. Zero.” The threat was accompanied by an executive order that promises tariffs on any nation that supplies crude oil to the island, which Trump has described as a “failed nation.”
Caught in this crossfire, Claudia Sheinbaum’s government navigates between two waters. On the one hand, it defends the “sovereignty” of helping a sister nation; On the other hand, in the Washington offices, their own accounting books tell another story: formal businesses and punctual payments that refute the purely humanitarian narrative.
Solidarity after the storm
From the National Palace, the speech has tried to avoid direct confrontation appealing to history. President Sheinbaum has reiterated that Mexico, faithful to its diplomatic tradition of voting against the blockade from day one, has the sovereign power to decide whether to “sell or give” oil to Cuba.
This rhetoric gained strength at the end of 2024. After the collapse of the Cuban electrical system and the devastating passage of Hurricane Rafael in November, the Mexican government started labeling their shipments under the umbrella of “humanitarian aid.” However, here the enigma arises. Although the president assures that there is a humanitarian donation channel other than the commercial one, her administration has not offered specific figures on how many barrels are given away and how many are charged. Everything is opacity in the help, while the business has lights and stenographers, as highlighted The Country.
While the political discourse focuses on solidarity, the financial documents are cold and exact. Pemex, which is listed on international markets, cannot afford ambiguities before the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). According to the information delivered to this regulatory body, the Mexican oil company maintains a current contract with the Cuban government since July 2023 through its subsidiary Wellbeing Gasoline.
Far from being a hidden charity, the figures revealed by the director of Pemex, Víctor Rodríguez Padilla, show an active and lucrative commercial relationship. In 2025, Mexico sold oil to Cuba worth 496 million dollars. If we add what has been invoiced since the start of the contract in 2023, the total figure amounts to about 1.4 billion dollars.
Rodríguez Padilla was emphatic in denying that Cuba does not pay its debts, a common perception given the island’s crisis. “Of course they pay us! We have a business relationship too. They are very formal in their payments,” the manager assuredclarifying that there are no overdue invoices.
To try to minimize the impact of these revelations before the scrutinizing eyes of Washington, Pemex has argued thatAlthough the figures sound high, they are marginal for the company: they represent less than 1% of its crude oil production and just 0.1% of its oil sales. It is an “open” contract that depends on Mexico’s availability, and not an unbreakable commitment.
The domino effect: why the tap was turned off
The current crisis is not explained only by Mexico’s decisions, but by the collapse of Havana’s historical suppliers. For years, Venezuela was the island’s lifeline, shipping up to 100,000 barrels a day during the time of Hugo Chávez. However, after the capture of Nicolás Maduro and the US intervention in Caracas, these shipments ceased completely in January. as detailed BBC.
Mexico then became the last lifeline, sending approximately 20,000 barrels a day, a figure that, although far from the island’s total needs, was essential. to maintain minimum services.
The pressure escalated when Republican congressmen, such as Carlos Giménez, put the Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (T-MEC) on the table. The threat it was clear: If Mexico continues to oxygenate the Cuban regime, the review of the trade agreement in 2026 could become a nightmare for the Mexican economy. Faced with the risk of tariffs that would damage its own economy, Mexico chose to suspend hydrocarbon shipments.
The consequences of this supply cut are immediate and alarming. A graph made with data from Kpler and published by the Financial Times illustrates the seriousness of the moment: Cuba’s crude oil imports have plummeted and, according to the estimates displayed in the report, the island only has oil reserves left for between 15 and 20 days.
The situation has raised alarm bells at the United Nations. The Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, he warned through his spokesperson that Cuba is at risk of imminent “humanitarian collapse” if its energy needs are not met. Without fuel, not only do the lights go out; The pumping of drinking water, the transportation of food and the operation of hospitals are stopped.
Faced with the impossibility of shipping oil without suffering commercial reprisals, the Sheinbaum government has modified its relief strategy. The president confirmed that, while the Foreign Ministry seeks “diplomatic ways” to resolve the oil issue, Mexico will ship this week shipments of food and basic products managed by the Secretary of the Navy. It is a palliative for a crisis that is, above all, energy.
In this maximum pressure scenario, an unexpected edge arises. As Trump closes the oil fence, he has also dropped comments that suggest the door is not completely closed. The American president recently stated that “we are negotiating with Cuban leaders right now,” hinting at conversations about immigration issues and the possibility of facilitating family visits. This raises the question of whether the oil blockade is an end in itself or a harsh negotiating tactic to force political concessions in Havana.
Structural reality, however, is arithmetic. Cuba needs about 110,000 barrels a day to operate and only produces 40,000 on its own. The deficit of 70,000 barrels per day is an abyss that, without Venezuela and now without Mexico, is impossible to fill in the short term.
The suspension of shipments from Mexico marks a turning point. Although the Mexican government insists on its sovereignty and the humanitarian nature of its support, the reality of markets and coercive diplomacy has prevailed. While the SEC records contain million-dollar contracts and punctual payments that refute the idea of purely altruistic aid, on the streets of Cuba time is against us. With ships stopped and reserves at minimum levels, the island faces a darkness that is no longer metaphorical, but imminently physical.
Image | Matthew Rutledge and Christopher Michel
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