that of Ukraine with disaster tourism

In October we met that Ryanair was going to escalate its confrontation with the Spanish government with a figure that was going to appear in all the media: a 1.2 million cut of seats in the summer season of 2026, with enclaves such as Asturias especially affected. The figure, added to the previous cutsmeant three million fewer places in just twelve months. Now, in a surprising turn of events, the airline, along with the rest of Low Cost, is preparing an unexpected landing: Ukraine.

Fly after the war. Yes, Europe is preparing for a scenario in which Ukrainian airspace reopens after a peace agreementand low-cost airlines see at that time not only the recovery of lost routes, but the beginning of an unprecedented stage in European commercial aviation.

Wizz Air, which before the Russian invasion was the country’s largest foreign operator, anticipates a massive return supported by the diaspora that wants to return, in the gigantic reconstruction that will transform the Ukrainian economic geography and in an uncomfortable, but historically recurring phenomenon: the disaster tourismthat collective drive to visit scenes that have marked a traumatic chapter in recent history.

A known phenomenon. That’s how it is, how it happened With the fall of the Berlin Wall, the visible wounds of war will attract millions of interested people for a time in being witnesses from the place where everything happened, and the airlines seek to position themselves before that human tide.

For Wizz Air, this translates into deploy fifteen aircraft in the first two years after peace and fifty in a horizon of seven, a leap that outlines the ambition to quickly rebuild a network that operated more than 5,000 flights annually before February 2022.

Ryanair’s strategy. In parallel, Ryanair has moved pieces with a speed that reveals the extent to which it considers Ukraine a key territory for its future growth. The Financial Times said A few hours ago its managers visited the main airports in the country with a plan already closed to achieve the four million passengers annually, almost tripling the 1.5 million it transported before the airspace closure.

The fortress of your model (dozens of bases distributed throughout Europe and the ability to open routes from practically any point in a matter of days) would allow it to fly to cities like kyiv, Lviv or Odessa as soon as two weeks later that it is declared safe to do so. That logistical muscle will make the difference in a race in which each airline seeks to be the first to occupy an infrastructure that, although damaged, retains enormous strategic potential. Ryanair, depending on the mediuminsists that filling planes will not be a problem: the return of citizens, pent-up demand and the natural flow of European travelers guarantee robust occupancy from day one.

The role of EasyJet. For its part, EasyJet, which never operated in Ukraine before the war, is eyeing the country as what could be Europe’s biggest civil project in decades. The attraction is not only tourist or demographic, but economic: The volume of investment that reconstruction will mobilize promises to turn Ukraine into a hub of activity that will attract companies, workers and entire logistics chains.

The airline insist in that operational viability will depend on the ability to restore control towers, runways and terminals, but emphasizes that these processes can be restarted relatively quickly once the military risk ceases. Even so, unlike Wizz Air and Ryanair, EasyJet does not plan to base aircraft in the country in the short term, reflecting a more cautious approach in a market that continues to be conditioned by geopolitical uncertainty and the need to rebuild essential infrastructure from scratch.

Security and the past. All this planning hits an inevitable and obvious obstacle: air safety. The European Aviation Safety Agency maintains the veto to fly over or land in Ukraine while the risk of attacks, misidentification or collateral damage persists, a warning that echoes the memory of the demolition of flight MH17 in 2014, a trauma that continues to mark continental aeronautical policy.

The warning reflects the precarious balance between the economic urgency to reconnect the country with Europe and the need to prevent a hasty reopening from turning civil aviation into an easy target or an accidental victim of a conflict that has not yet been completely extinguished. Currently, only the Russian Smartavia has recorded flights in two years, an indication of the air vacuum in which Ukraine has lived since the beginning of the invasion.

A future tied to the end of the war. There is no doubt, the renaissance of air traffic Ukrainian will depend, ultimately, on the long-awaited peace signing and the pace at which its airports are rebuilt, but also the narrative that the country manages to project. Ukraine will become a space where memory, economic opportunity, return mobility and a massive reconstruction effort converge that will reconfigure its position in Europe.

And in this scenario, low-cost airlines are already competing for stand on the front line of a renaissance, convinced that, when the country reopens to the world, it will not only recover the almost fifteen million passengers before the war, but that it will become a symbolic destination of a new European stage.

Paradoxically, their deceased aim to be the first to generate an economy.

Image | Michael OrtegaZohra Bensemra, RawPixel

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