When we think of humanoid robots, it is easy for the first name that appears to be Optimus. Tesla has managed to install its robot in the technological imagination before even turning it into a product that anyone can buy. But that is precisely the nuance that makes this story interesting: while the robot from the firm led by Elon Musk is still awaiting public sale, some Chinese manufacturers are already closer to specific commercial uses. What we have seen at fairs, events and first deployments points to a career that is beginning to be measured less by promise and more by deployment.
Morgan Stanley’s jump. The clearest signal comes from the US bank. Morgan Stanley has raised for the second time this year its forecast for shipments of humanoid robots in China and wait that 50,000 units are reached in 2026. The figure almost doubles its previous estimate, located at 28,000 units, and leaves the first forecast from January, when it spoke of 14,000, even further away. The adjustment is not minor: in a few months, the entity has gone from a cautious expectation to a much more ambitious reading of the pace that the sector is taking.
The small print. Morgan Stanley’s forecast does not mix all scenarios. The calculation includes only external sales and leaves out robots produced for prototypes, pre-sales tests or internal use, an important nuance when we talk about an industry still in the initial deployment phase. The bank also estimates that the Chinese humanoid market will reach $2 billion in 2026 and grow to $15 billion in 2030. By then, its forecasts point to 446,000 annual shipments.
The change of pace. Morgan Stanley attributes this revision to a combination of factors that go beyond investor interest. In a note collected by CNBCSheng Zhong, an analyst at the entity, summarizes it this way: “Commercial verification, political support and supply chain response point to faster adoption of humanoids in China.” The phrase well summarizes the substance of the matter: we are not just talking about robots that generate attention at a fair, but also about commercial signals, public support and suppliers capable of responding.
Where is the success? The bank is seeing clearer signals in factories and logistics, but also in unattended stores, interactive business services, restaurants and convenience stores. It makes sense: these are scenarios where tasks can be better defined, the environment is more controllable, and the economic return is easier to measure.
The long-term scale. The background context is broader than this year’s review. Morgan Stanley Research estimated that the global humanoid market could exceed $5 trillion by 2050, including sales, supply chains, repair, maintenance and support. He also projected more than 1 billion humanoids in use by then, with about 90% destined for industrial and commercial tasks. The idea fits with what we are seeing in China: not just AI models on screen, but physical systems capable of acting in real environments.
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