China has achieved what until recently seemed unattainable: reduce its CO₂ emissions while continuing to expand its energy capacity. An unexpected turn to The biggest issuer in the world.
Short. A Brief Carbon report He has revealed that CO2 emissions in China decreased 1.6% year -on -year in the first quarter of 2025 and 1% in the last 12 months.
Investment in renewables. China hoped to start reduce your emissions in 2030. But The strong growth of renewables “Leolar, wind and nuclear,” is advancing the times. And most interesting: this fall in emissions is not due to a crisis, but to a real transformation of the energy system.
For the first time, the growth of clean energy has reduced China’s fossil fuel energy to the growing demand for electricity
In data. To dimension the rhythm of change, Carbon Brief He has highlighted that only in March of this year 23 GW of solar energy and 13 GW of wind were installed, breaking all the previous records. The new installed capacity not only covered the growing energy demand, but allowed to reduce the use of coal.
Other factors in early fall. The decrease in CO2 before planned has not been only due to an expansion of renewable Focused on internal production.
Can this be only temporary? As have indicated The data, the emissions are only 1% of the peak, so any economic activity or change of energy policy can change this situation. In fact, there are precedents of temporary falls in 2009, 2012, 2015 and 2022, all driven by crisis or economic decelerations. In addition, the Asian country Keep maintaining A strong investment in coal plants for your “electrostate.” The big question now is whether this fall can be maintained and becoming a structural trend, or if it will be just a respite before new increases.
Uncertainties. Next June It enters into force A new renewable energy price policy. With this rule, guaranteed rates disappear that were linked to coal and new projects must directly negotiate their contracts in the market. In the short term, an impulse is expected in the installation figures, but in the long term the measure could generate instability if there are no clear incentives that maintain rhythm.
Forecasts According to Carbon Brief analysisthe long -term trajectory will depend on two key factors: the next five -year plan that China is developing and the economic response of the commercial warfare, now in a momentary truce. In short, the challenge is political and structural. If the decisions taken in the coming years manage to consolidate this trend, China will not only fulfill its climatic commitments, but also lead the global energy transformation.
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