The world ages. And at a good pace too. If the World Health Organization (WHO) hits the nail on the headin 2050 the percentage of people over 60 years of age will double that of 2015. From representing 12% it will become close to 22%. Beyond the percentages, this aging translates into challenges in economic, health and social matters. Also in juicy business opportunities, like the one that he thinks he has before him the elevator industry.
In their case, an older world will be a world with more work.
What has happened? That TK Elevator has shaken the elevator sector by openly recognizing that the gradual aging of the planet (very visible already in Europe or countries like Japan either Korea) represents a lucrative business opportunity. The reason is simple: the more elderly, the greater the need for elevators in buildings. Especially since these and their services are also aging.
“A growing trend”. If TK’s words have generated so much expectation, it is because it is not just any company. The firm, based in Düsseldorf, is a heavy weight within the sector, where it is responsible for both manufacturing machinery and maintaining it. Their models can be found in emblematic skyscrapers in New York, although the bulk of their business comes from much more modest buildings occupied by homes, offices or shops.
His prediction about the future of the sector in an increasingly aging world has not been made anywhere either. has shared it with one of the most influential newspapers in the US, Financial Times. “As the population ages there is a need to install elevators. We see this becoming a growing trend,” recognize the firm’s executive director, Uday Yadavl.
The example of Japan. During his interview, Yadaval cited a specific case: Japan, perhaps one of the countries that is most clearly suffering from the winds of demographic winter. Although all your attempts to reactivate its population engine (and there have been many), the birth rate continues at levels historically low while on the streets it is increasingly easier to find elderly people.
According to Our World in Datathe country has the highest “old-age dependency ratio” (the ratio between people over 64 and people of working age) in the world: in 2021 it exceeded 50%, which means that there are only two people of working age for every elderly person. And since then demographic indicators have not exactly improved. It is estimated that about 30% of the country’s population is 65 or older, which is equivalent to tens of millions of people.
A widespread phenomenon. Japan is not the only nation facing an aging population, a problem with which Europe fights and other countries, such as South Korea either China. In general the WHO has warned that the trend seems to be accelerating globally and remember that in 2020 the number of people aged 60 or over exceeded that of children under five.
“In 2030, one in six people in the world will be 60 years old or older,” insists the WHO, recalling that by then the world population over 60 years old will total 1.4 billion people, well above the 1,000 in 2020.
Demographics (and more). It’s not just that more and more older people live in cities and need elevators to get to their homes, it’s that the buildings themselves need renovations. At the end of the day, we age… and the blocks in which we reside. Yadav estimates There are about 22 million elevators worldwide, of which a third (30%) are more than two decades old.
In practice, this translates into an immense number of facilities that probably need improvements and tune-ups, a demand that, assures the manager from TK Elevator, is already “growing in a meaningful way.”
“More than remarkable”. Although his weight in the sector gives him special relevance, Yadav is not the first to have publicly recognized the good forecasts that the elevator industry has. Last summer Roland Berger published a report in which he provided several insights into the global elevator market, valued according to his calculations at 107 billion dollars.
After “several ups and downs” in recent years, marked by COVID-19 or the real estate crisis in China, companies now face a “more than notable growth panorama.” A trend that connects the sector with the flourishing silver economythe economy driven precisely by aging.
Images | Zhuojun Yu (Unsplash)
In Xataka | In Japan there is no doubt that they live worse than 30 years ago. Houses are literally getting smaller.
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