There is a date marked in red on logistics calendars across the continent: tomorrow, April 10. According to the projections of the analysis firm Argus Mediaaround this day the last shipments of aviation fuel (jet fuel) that managed to cross the Strait of Hormuz before its closure will dock in European ports. From that date onwards, entry volumes will plummet.
The impact is no longer a theoretical threat. According to TVP Worldthe shortage is already palpable in Italy: the airports of Bologna, Milan Linate, Treviso and Venice have issued notices warning of possible restrictions on refueling due to the limited availability of fuel from their supplier, Air BP Italia. It is the first major warning of a domino effect that threatens to paralyze the European skies.
The perfect storm in the Gulf. Since the start of the Third Gulf War on February 28 more than 20% has been canceled of the world’s seaborne jet fuel supply, and no less than 42% of seaborne imports from the European Union and the United Kingdom.
The recent news of a “two-week truce” announced by US President Donald Trump has been received as a mirage in the industry. According to Politicalthe ceasefire will not solve the shortage in the short term. Willie Walsh, director general of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), warned that rebuild damaged refining capacity in the Middle East will take months. Among the infrastructures hit is the Al-Zour refinery in Kuwait, responsible for providing approximately 10% of Europe’s jet fuel imports, as pointed out BBC.
Furthermore, maritime logistics is unforgiving. In the most idealized scenario where Hormuz is completely reopened today, ships would take 25 days to reach Europe sailing through a Red Sea where the Houthis remain a threat, or up to six weeks if they are forced to go around the Cape of Good Hope.
Prices are skyrocketing. The price of aviation fuel in Europe reached last week an all-time high of $1,838 per ton, compared to 831 dollars before the start of the war. This increase translates into an immediate logistical problem on the landing strips. Anita Mendiratta, special advisor to the Secretary-General of UN Tourism, explains to Euronews a crucial technical detail: airports cannot store aviation fuel in large quantities. The entire system is designed to rely on continuous deliveries through refineries and pipelines. Any slightest interruption breaks the chain.
The consequences are already visible on the exit panels. Just two weeks ago, we reported in Xataka that more than 25,000 flights canceled over the Middle East, while European airlines such as Scandinavian SAS have canceled at least 1,000 flights in April alone. For their part, giants like Delta Air Lines plan to absorb $2 billion in extra costs during the second quarter alone due to fuel, according to Reuters.
How does it affect the passenger? Analysts of Barclays, in statements collected by Politicalthey end the era of “super normal” prices and cheap tickets. Airlines will also have to make drastic decisions about their fleets: Willie Walsh, in an interview with Bloomberganticipates that companies will be forced to evaluate the accelerated retirement of high-consumption aircraft, such as the gigantic A380.
United States to the rescue (at the price of gold). In this survival scenario, Europe has found a lifeline on the other side of the Atlantic, although at a very high price. According to Financial TimesAmerican fuel already accounts for half of British imports (compared to the usual 7%). However, Europe is waging a fierce bidding war with Asia over shipments that, as it warns, Argus Media in the British environment, they will barely cover half of the gap left by the Middle East.
Internally, the resistance goes in other directions. While countries with their own refining such as Poland are more protected, the calculations of Argus Media collected by Euronews They estimate that, without new shipments, commercial reserves will be exhausted in three months in the United Kingdom, in four in Portugal and in seven in Spain, Italy or Germany. Faced with this fragmented map, the EU is in tow: its spokesperson, Anna-Kaisa Itkonen, has acknowledged to the same medium that Brussels still lacks a “complete image” of national reserves to be able to organize a solidarity plan.
The lessons of a dependent industry. Beyond the April emergency, the crisis has uncovered deep structural flaws in global aviation. According to Aviation WeekMarie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s chief economist, was astonished at the world’s complacency in living “under the domination of this monopolistic industry that is oil.” Thomsen denounced the very serious lack of investment in Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF), pointing out that capital is overwhelmingly directed to sectors such as artificial intelligence.
For his part, Willie Walsh launched a direct criticism of governments: while States maintain immense strategic reserves of crude oil to cushion global crises, “it does not seem that we have any strategic reserves of jet fuel,” collects Aviation Week. The underlying fear is not just a difficult summer, but a permanent paradigm shift. According to a European executive in the energy sector to Politicalthe “worst case scenario” is that the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, but under new rules: with Iran applying permanent restrictions or charging tolls that alter global energy dynamics forever.
A summer on the wire The high summer season is just around the corner and the market is walking on the wire. A firm analyst Vortexa warns in the BBC that, if these interruptions persist, maintaining the current level of flights will be logistically unsustainable without drastic route cuts and massive fare increases.
Starting tomorrow, when the last ships that managed to escape the blockade unload their precious fuel in the continent’s ports, European aviation will begin to fly with the reserve light on. The era of absolute vulnerability of the European sky has just taken off.
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