The political tension that China and Japan live has added a new chapter: the recent confrontation between boats of both nations near the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands shows the extent to which the balance in East Asia has entered a phase of constant friction. China has issued a hitherto unpublished “diplomatic letter”: that of the Second World War.
Sea climbing. The incident, presented in an opposite way by the coast guards of both countries, it is not an isolated episodebut the visible expression of a historical dispute that has been intensified by broader strategic factors: the Chinese military rise, growing Japanese unrest over the Taiwan security and the systemic pressure that China exerts in the region.
In a space of just a handful of uninhabited islets, a decade of increased Chinese patrolling, an increase in the Japanese presence and a climate of suspicion fueled now by the more explicit tone of the new leadership in Tokyo is condensed. The chinese reactionwhich insists that its presence in the area is a way of “asserting its rights,” is combined with an internal message of firmness in the face of a Japan that, from Beijing’s point of view, is crossing red lines.
The Chinese diplomatic offensive. As we said at the beginning, Beijing has accompanied its maritime deployment with a diplomatic campaign that revives episodes of World War II as a tool of political pressure. China’s appeals to the United Kingdom, France and the United States to line up against Japan reveal a tactical change: transforming a territorial and strategic dispute into a narrative battle that positions Tokyo as an actor that “reverses history” and threatens regional stability.
They remembered in the NYT that the references point to revive sensitivities that condemned Japanese expansionism eight decades ago, but are now used to try to discredit a Japan that has verbalized, unusual shapethat a Chinese attack on Taiwan could force it to act militarily. The chinese answer (tourist boycotts, cancellation of imports, public singling out of Japanese politicians) combines economic pressure with nationalist rhetorica pattern Beijing has used before, although rarely with this intensity. Not only that, the campaign also aims to stop any European rapprochement with Taiwan, especially following recent political gestures in Brussels and Berlin that Beijing perceives as a normalization of European support for the island.
Senkaku
Japan breaks silence. We explained it last week. The words by Sanae Takaichi on the possibility that a Chinese attack or blockade of Taiwan would pose a direct threat to Japanese survival have had an immediate effect: they have publicly revealed a doctrinal line that had been quietly consolidating for years. Japan always understood that its destiny was intertwined with the stability of the Taiwan Strait, yet the clarity with which the prime minister articulated this position marked a turning point.
The chinese reaction (accusations of militarism, veiled threats, economic pressures and an increase in the activities of its coast guard) reflects Beijing’s fear that the relationship between Tokyo and Washington will crystallize into a political and military bloc willing to respond in a coordinated manner to a Chinese escalation. If you will also, anxiety worsens as the Taiwanese political cycle of 2028 approaches: if the Democratic Progressive Party chains another term, the possibility of a stronger Taiwanese identity and a sustained rejection of unification would ignite all the alarms in Beijing. Therefore, any sign that Japan will no longer remain in strategic ambiguity alters the Chinese calculus.
Tension and risk. The sum of these events builds a scenario in which each movement seems to have multiple layers of meaning. The Chinese pressure on Taiwan It is no longer just military or economic, it is accompanied by disinformation campaigns, naval maneuvers and calculated use of internal nationalism.
Plus: the Japanese response, by making explicit that Taiwan’s security is also own securityreturns Beijing to a deeper dilemma. Admit that its pressure can provoke exactly what it wants to avoid, that is, the consolidation of an international coalition willing to consider itself an interested party in the future of the island.
Uncertainty. This phenomenon creates especially volatile terrain, because any action by China around Taiwan (a partial blockade, new trade restrictions, an increase in military exercises) could be interpreted by Tokyo and Washington as a prelude to aggravated coercion.
The Chinese narrative, invoke historical wounds, increases the risk that domestic public opinion will limit the Chinese leadership’s ability to back down without appearing weak.
Critical point. Ultimately, the combination of hostility at seadiplomatic pressure in Europe, demonstrations of strength around Taiwan and Japan’s decision to speak clearly constitutes a decisive moment for strategic balance of the Indo-Pacific. If Japan and the United States maintain their firm stance, China will have to weigh the cost of an escalation which could lead to a confrontation that is beyond their control.
If, on the other hand, either of the two actors backs down, Beijing will interpret that the pressure is working and will possibly increase its pressure against the island, reinforcing the idea that international inaction opens space for a unilateral resolution of the conflict.
Image | Al Jazeera English
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