The European Commission has presented its proposal for lighten emissions obligations for manufacturers in 2035. It is the confirmation that, if finally approved, Germany has won. And the country has gone on its own in its pressure on the European Union but, in addition, the new proposal reflects the true concerns of its industry.
To better understand what has happened, we must remember. In 2022, The European Parliament approved the ban to sell cars that emit CO2 in 2035. The objective was reduce emissions by 100% pollutants target of 2021 and, therefore, that eliminated the possibility of selling any car that used this technology. That is to say, Europe had to jump to the electric car whether it wanted it or not.
Some time later, with Germany and Italy putting pressure, the possibility was approved for cars sold from 2035 onwards to use combustion engines powered by efuel. These are synthetic fuels that, supposedly, during their production capture the same or greater amount of CO2 than that emitted by the exhaust pipe. If this is true, the car would be carbon neutral.
With the wording that the car must be neutral in carbon emissions, the door was also open to the use of hydrogen cars (both in fuel cell as in format hydrogen combustion). These cars are also carbon neutral for the same reason, but along with their water vapor they do expel certain particles that are harmful to humans such as NOx or fine particles.
At the time, the European Union kept a letter. The objectives could be revised and this This is what the European Commission has done. This has approved a proposal that has to be ratified by the European Parliament and the States (Council of Europe). Although it is not, therefore, official, it does anticipate that we will see changes in the rule.
This regulation has several key points:
- The carbon emissions target is reduced from 100% to 90% compared to 2021 figures.
- The door opens to create a category that has become popular as eCarsmall electric cars (less than 4.2 meters), with their own regulation that will count as 1.3 cars when calculating the fleet’s emissions.
- The objectives of reducing emissions by 55% in 2030 are postponed to 2032. In those years, a space opens up in which manufacturers will have to comply with the proposed objectives by the end of 2032, with an average of those three years. A measure similar to the one that has been opened in the period 2025-2027.
And this completely defines which cars can be sold.
The data
As we said, Germany has gotten away with these pressures. And in recent days we have seen two clearly differentiated fronts.
Spain and France were willing to maintain regulation just as it was. Another group, cwith Germany in the leadproposed the revision of the objectives but the country, however, did not sign the letter of the six dissident countries in which Europe was asked to reverse its environmental policies regarding automobiles.
Now, with the requirements that are proposed by the European Commission We know that, if it is finally approved, cars with combustion engines will continue to be sold. But as long as the average fleet of cars on the street guarantees that 90% reduction in emissions, which in practice leaves sales in a vast majority of electric cars punctuated by pure combustion vehicles.
It must be taken into account that reducing CO2 polluting emissions by 90% compared to 2021 means that the fleet average will not be able to exceed 11.6 gr/km of CO2 (in 2021 it was 116 gr/km). That implies a ridiculous consumption of just 0.5 l/100 km of gasoline. A figure that is almost impossible to achieve for a specific car. Until now, plug-in hybrids were around 1l/100 km and CO2 averages of 50 gr/km in their official approvals. An already very high figure but will rise with the entry of the new calculation system multiplying the record in CO2 emissions.
To compensate for this, a car only has one option left: increase its battery. The intention for 2035 is that plug-in hybrids will have a lot greater electrical autonomy. To give us an idea, the plug-in hybrid with the greatest autonomy on the market right now is the Lynk&Co 08 with 200 approved electric kilometers. Despite everything, Its CO2 emissions remain at 23 gr/km of CO2. That is, they double the maximum allowed in 2035.
With this data, the company has to sell one electric car for each of these plug-in hybrids to be right within the limit of permitted CO2 emissions. But, in addition, Homologation criteria will be much stricter from 2028. So much so that a plug-in hybrid car that in 2021 registered around 50 gr/km of CO2 is expected to exceed 120 gr/km of CO2 with the new approval. Therefore, Lynk&Co should sell more than two electrics for each plug-in of the aforementioned Lynk&Co 08.
The other option for an electrified vehicle with a combustion engine is the extended range electric vehicle. This type of car is, in practice, a plug-in hybrid but its combustion engine is designed for emergencies. So far we have seen cars like the Mazda MX-30 sold under this name but, in reality, they have a 50 liter fuel tank. What will have to arrive will be more similar to the first BMW i3 REX (the version with range extender) whose tank was 9 liters and, therefore, it was designed for an emergency.
Expensive, very expensive
Taking all this into account, it is clear that emissions obligations have been relaxed but it is still essential for manufacturers to continue selling a large number of electric vehicles.
In practice, the best news for them is that 2025 fines postponed to 2027 and, therefore, they have two more years to comply with the obligation to place the average of emissions from its fleet at 93.6 gr/km of CO2. The plan was to fine 95 euros for each gram exceeded and car sold. That is, if the fleet average is 1 gr/km of CO2 and 1 million cars have been sold, the fine would amount to 95 million euros. The problem for most are that they were well above those figures.
In 2030 emissions should be 49.5 gr/km of CO2 but the limit has been pushed back to 2032opening a period between both years in which manufacturers will have time to comply. In 2035 the limit should be, if nothing changes again, 10% and, therefore, 11.6 gr/km of CO2.
This implies, as we have seen, that the sale of a plug-in hybrid must be accompanied by a very high electrification or the sale of many electric cars to compensate. A 120 HP Toyota Yaris currently emits 86 gr/km of CO2. This implies that a brand that sells just one of these cars will have to put another six or seven electric cars on the road, at least, to offset this volume of emissions if it does not want to incur fines.
Electrification of small cars is very expensive. So much so that practically no brand opts for plug-in hybridization for a car of this type. It forces the price to rise, taking it out of the market compared to competitors, and leaves it with very little interior or trunk space. And that in current terms, without the new emissions control coming into play.
The small electric car, therefore, will have to jump to total electrification. It is necessary to meet emissions targets but brands are also interested since regulations in recent years have forced them to design new platforms and invest in already built plantsas well as new spaces to assemble batteriesleaving billions of euros along the way. Large manufacturers have no choice but to amortize these investments by prioritizing the sale of “affordable” electric cars. Understanding “affordable” below 30,000 euros.
What remains, therefore, are combustion engines for expensive vehicles. This is great news for Germany whose BMW, Mercedes and Audi had shown reluctance to jump to electric cars in recent months, including changes in the strategies of the last two to go back and undo a path that pointed to “all electric”.
And all the German brands have found that, once they have overcome their first embrace of the electric car, His wealthiest clients reject him. From Rimac, which had one of the most advanced electric vehicles, they even pointed out that the client felt like they were being forced to buy electric and that continuing to bet on combustion was something like a kind of opposition.
BMW, however, always indicated that he would continue developing engines combustion. But he made it clear that those engines were going to be the largest and most expensive. And if the development of combustion engines continues to force large sums of money into investmentsthere is no choice but to corner them at the top of the offer. Financially, it makes the most sense. In an economy of scale, if combustion is purchased less, the vehicle is more expensive and there is no choice but to put it where the profit margins are higher.
It remains to be seen how luxury brands play their cards. Firms like Lamborghini or Ferrari They have room for maneuver. They will have to make a strong commitment to electrified vehicles but the door is opened for them to charge even more for combustion engines. In a highly electrified market, a huge old-fashioned combustion engine It leaves them room to position it among their most expensive ranges. Here the profit margin is enormous and they can pass part of the fine on to the client. In addition, they always have the possibility of buying emissions credits from other companies.
In summary, everything indicates thatThe combustion engine will be positioned as a status symbol. It is likely that we will see electric vehicles with range extenders or plug-in hybrids with enormous ranges, but the purer the combustion engine, the more expensive it will be.
Photo | porsche
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