They run times convulsive moved in the oil market of Spanish olive. For both consumers who go to the supermarket in search of bottles and for farmers who sell their crops. After the increases and Down Price lived by one and the other in recent years, the oil mills have just encountered a surprise: the price of the extra virgin in origin has just exceeded the psychological barrier of the four euros per kiloan important ‘red line’ for the producers that had been touching for several months.
The big question is how far that climb will reach.
What happened? That the price at the origin of extra virgin olive oil has exceeded the psychological barrier of four euros per kilo. We know it thanks to the data of the last week (August 18-24) Disclosed By Asaja-Jaén, which has had access to updated information of the Poolred system. To be more precise, the Aove marks € 4,001/kg, the Virgin 3.53 and in Lampanant 3.29.
Their values are in tune with those of the Price and Markets Observatory of the Junta de Andalucía, which also places the extra virgin at source above four euros. With regard to consumption prices, for now, CPI boards show that the cost of olive oil in general has fallen 3.1% in June And it remains sensibly below of the values a year ago.
Why is it important? For several reasons. The main is that the Aove had been located below that value for months, as reflected The Andalusian Observatory or the platform Infaolivewhich shows that the extra virgin remained below four euros since practically beginning of 2025. Since then its graph shows that it has been oscillating around € 3.5/kg. Other sources They assure that the Aove does not reach four euros since December 2024.
Are there more reasons? Yes. The second reason why this milestone is so important is that it has a symbolic background for oil producers. In the sector there are who considers that the four euros per kilo mark the ‘barrier’ that maintains the profitability of the farms. Others They hold that the minimum that covers production expenses is higher and set at € 5/kg. In any case, the truth is that the sector had been under that ‘red line’ for months.
In May, for example, the Coordinator of Agricultural and Livestock Organizations (COAG) warned That while consumers paid about six euros per liter, the producers received less than 3.5 for the extra virgin, far from the between 5.55 and € 6.14/kg that, according to their calculations, had to mark the price of Aove the 2024/25 campaign. “It is a situation that cannot be maintained over time.”
Why does the price upload? For several reasons. The main is the drift of the harvest. Although initially the farmers had a great campaign, driven by spring rains, which even led the government to endow a ‘nuclear button’ that the case would allow you to remove oil from the market to guarantee your “stability”, everything indicates that the campaign will be less prolific of the expected. So much so that a month ago the farmers launched A message to reduce optimism and emphasize the expectations of the sector.
What can we expect then? “The current situation in the main autonomous producing community, Andalusia, leads us to think that the euphoria that reigned among the great market operators about a historical harvest is collapsing,” They warned in July from the union of small farmers and ranchers (UPA). Its production estimates for Andalusia then pointed to between 950,000 and 1.15 million tons, a figure holds the meteorology drift of the coming months. “That is, at best we would be in a situation similar to the 2024/2025 campaign”, They needed.
Behind that lower production there is a cluster of factorsincluding high temperatures during flowering, the influence of pests, the impact of the latest heat waves on the size of the fruit or the plantation’s own veracular. UPA’s global estimate is that the production fork of the next campaign will move between 1.2 and 1.4 million of tons, a figure that responds to the cutting of forecasts in Andalusia and Castilla-La Mancha.
And how does the market leave? That is the other key that explains the drift of prices. Poolred data or the Andalusian Observatory show an increase in prices at source throughout recent weeks, but still sales have advanced at a good pace: a few weeks ago Asaja Córdoba celebrated that olive oil outlets reached last month the 147,000 t“the highest figures of the last ten years in a month of July at the national level.” The link, which reflects the stocks of merchandise that will remain between campaigns, is also promised short, with 270,000 tonsas required The economist.
Another of the keys to the campaign is the behavior of the US market. The newspaper slides that between January and May the sales of Spanish olive oil in the US grew by 31.25%, although that rebound was not even to the value of sales. The big question is how tariffs will affect. July exports data (still free of fees) already show A fallalthough in the sector there are Optimistic voices They remember that there are faithful customers who already paid for Spanish oil when their price at source was much higher than the current one.
Images | Wikipedia and Iloveaceite (Flickr) 1 and 2
In Xataka | More and more giants get into the Andalusian field and in the olive oil industry. The last: Pepsico
GIPHY App Key not set. Please check settings