four autonomies especially exposed to the US

The return of Donald Trump to the White House threatens to unleash a trade war that would especially hit Madrid, the Valencian Community, Catalonia and Andalusia. Four territories that concentrate the bulk of Spanish trade with the United States, according to progress The World.

Why is it important. Spanish commercial exposure to the United States reaches 36,000 million euros, 2.3% of the national GDP. Although it is a figure lower than the European average, the impact of a tariff escalation could be notable in strategic sectors.

In detail. Each territory has its own vulnerabilities to the tariff threat:

• Valencian Community: the automobile industry, with Ford in Almussafes and the Volkswagen gigafactory in Sagunto as the main objectives.
• Catalonia: The chemical and pharmaceutical sector represents 54% of exports to the US.
• Madrid: main recipient of American investment, capturing 6 out of every 10 euros, with an increase of 66% in 2023, according to what it points out The reason.
• Andalusia: olive oil and agri-food products, which They already suffered tariffs in 2019.

Between the lines. The experience of 2019, when Trump already punished Spanish products for the Airbus conflicthas served as learning. Companies have diversified markets and strengthened their supply chains to reduce their dependence on the US market.

The Chambers of Commerce indicate that Spanish companies have learned to be more resilient, negotiating with new business partners and adapting their export strategies in the face of possible adverse scenarios.

The alarm signal. BBVA Research warns that the impact could be “limited” in general terms, but severe in specific sectors. Spain exports to the US approximately half the European average, which could partially protect it from a tariff escalation.

The contrast. While some sectors prepare for the blow, others could benefit. American tourism, which increased its spending in Spain by 13% in 2023 compared to 2019, could grow even more thanks to a strong dollar, as stated 20 minutes.

The strength of the US currency could also boost American investment in Spain, especially in sectors such as real estate and financial services, where Madrid already exercises clear leadership at the national level.

Go deeper. The trade war can have a domino effect on the Spanish economy. If Trump follows through on his threat to apply widespread tariffs, the European Union is already preparing countermeasures that could further escalate the conflict.

However, if we learned anything from Trump’s first term, it is that it follows a certain pattern: announcing tough measures on which to then negotiate downwards, but starting from a strong position. Possibly, a fruit of a life dedicated to private enterprise. So it is feasible that the final measures will be less intense than those proposed.

Featured image | Rene DeAnda in Unsplash

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