In the month of August we met A story which reflected as few the state of one of the most precious materials on the planet. It turns out that in Stilfontein, an ancient mining town in South Africa, neighbors no longer fear the void of abandoned tunnels, but to strangers who arrive in cars loaded with rifles. Yes, these armed bands arrive to take an increasingly valuable booty.
A few weeks later, buying gold is again the Century business.
Historical boom of the shelter. Yes, gold is going through its largest annual escalation since 1979, with a 39% jump that has taken it to historical maximums above the $ 3,649and it does not for a classical financial collapse, but by the search for coverage before a political and macroeconomic environment perceived as unstable.
He told the WSJ that the best stamp Encana Kenneth Pack, a snowfall retiree who first entered April to shield in the face of the disorder associated with the new Trump administration and that, even after the stock market bourse after the confusion of the “day of liberation”, has decided Keep 17% of its portfolio in metals and linked values.
A return in style. The phenomenon transcends the retail investor and is perceived from The Costco halls to shaped vaults in London, where the metal is stored and negotiated without abandoning the building, and where the dominant expectation is that the price will continue to rise.
The starting point, in reality, was created almost three years ago with sustained purchases of central banks and Chinese demand, but the 2025 engine It is also western: a selective risk aversion that coexists with a Stock market (extra) euphoric for the AI, and used by gold As sure in front of a weakened dollar and economic policy decisions difficult to anticipate.
Commercial policy and the dollar. Plus: the attempt to reorder global trade to tariffs Changes in a matter of hours has contaminated inflation and growth forecasts, while a federal reserve pressure campaign Question independence of a key institutional pillar.
In parallel, the dollar has had its worse first semester in more than half a century according to some metrics, deterioration that Improves attractiveness of assets not called in the American currency. The lack of tangible advances to close conflicts that periodically shake the markets, such as Ukraine, adds a geopolitical layer that reinforces the perception of fragility of the economic order, and that in the mind Energy shocks And the erosion of purchasing power made gold an escape Faced with uncertainty.
Investment channels. This ascent is not just a sociological story: you can actually follow the money trail. The American ETF backed by physical gold have seen their heritage grow a 43% since Januarywith monthly tickets among the largest of the last decade, while the Hedge Funds have concentrated almost half of their net exhibition to raw materials in metalamplifying short -term movements.
He August message In Washington of Jerome Powell, when insinuating the start of type cuts, he acted as a double catalyst: in short, he is less expensive to maintain an asset without coupon against public debt. Halfway, yes Types are trimmed With full employment and inflation still above the objective, the risk is to sow more persistent price pressures that support the upward thesis. The sensitivity of gold to the opportunity cost It is immediatebut its vigor depends on the background narrative: if the cut of types lived with a weak dollar and tozudas inflation expectations, the marginal flow would continue to favor metal.
Refuge Psychology. It is inherent to the human being. In this climate, the psychology of the shelter spreads beyond professionals. As summarized the journalin London, those private vaults report a constant drip of assets that prefer the Tangible Safety of the Lagoteto the point of planning the duplication of their box capacity, while the number of people who sell jewels upload for casting because “the value is in the material”, displacing crafts due to the weight of the metal.
The narrative is also filtered by political and commercial channels, with public figures promoting conversion Gold retirement accounts, a symptom that has ceased to be an instrument of niche to consolidate as a transverse symbol of heritage protection. The significant detail is that this boom lives with maximum stock market: There is no general escape from risk, but explicit coverage against adverse scenarios that the market does not end up ruling out.
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Risks and counterweights. This week many US media They explained That the danger that golden fever feeds is a damn word of the seventies: stagflationthat is, the mixture of high inflation and weak growth that erodes benefits and makes financing more expensive. Several analysts They warn that its probability has increased and, if materialized, would offer an optimal macro -entry for gold.
The counterweight: a restoration of confidence in the growth of the United States and in the role of the dollar as a reserve could puncture The impulse, but with live commercial tensions and a foreign policy perceived as more retracted, that hypothesis points fragile. Gold no Upload in a straight line and is sensitive to changes in real types and in risk appetite, but the Current forces balance (Structural purchases of central banks, financial flows towards ETF, geopolitical coverage and doubts about price discipline) explains why this 2025 remembers, in intensity, to the Last big shake of metal
SYo and not. If you want also, the gold boom works as a kind of silent referendum about three vectors: The credibility of economic policy, the strength of the dollar and the persistence of geopolitical tensions. While the combination of erratic tariffs, institutional pressure and enquisted conflicts hold the feeling that I miss it is the normal new, the metal will retain its inertia as systemic insurance.
On the contrary, if at any time an alternative story crystallizes (more robust growth, inflation converging in a credible way and/or a dollar revaluing), the market will adjust positions and will drain part of enthusiasm. Until then, what we see is less an emotional bubble than the cold decision of many to pay a kind of premium for certainty in a world where the parameters change with sudden quickly.
In Xataka | The price of gold is in the clouds so that has created a new criminal business: “narcomineros”
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Xataka
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Miguel Jorge
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