It was the second worst value on the IBEX 35 in 2025, but it achieved its best portability data in history

Telefónica has closed its busy 2025 with two opposite faces:

1. in bag plummeted 11% and ended up as the second worst value on the IBEX 35, only ahead of Puig.
2. But on the street he won the battle: captured almost 200,000 mobile lines of the competition, its best historical record in portability.

Why it is important. This contradiction explains well how the market no longer rewards only commercial success. Investors demand financial visibility, robust cash flow and a clear roadmap. Telefónica has achieved the first, but with the change of presidency a year is still in process of the rest.

The turning point. Everything changed on November 4th. At his Capital Market Day, in which he took the opportunity to Publish your five-year strategic planthe operator announced a dividend cut in half (from 0.30 to 0.15 euros per share) and cash projections lower than expected.

Investors immediately punished it: less dividend, less cash and little clarity about some operations.

The backdrop. The stock market punishment contrasts with Telefónica’s best commercial year in a long time. The sum of Movistar and O2 portability quintupled in 2024 and consolidated the leadership of the leading telecom in the premium segment of the Spanish mobile market.

• Digi led the total market with 783,000 net lines, dominating the low cost.
• MásOrange lost 513,000 mobile customers, its worst result.
• Vodafone Spain gave up 435,000 lines, even with the sum of Finetwork.

Telefónica’s commercial success is explained by a pincer strategy: Digi sweeps through increasingly cheaper rates, so Movistar and O2 have entrenched themselves in the highest value segments, where customers pay more and remain loyal. But that victory has not translated into stock market metrics. Only Puig has had a worse 2025 on the IBEX than the telecom company.

Yes, but. The theory of “IBEX dogs” suggests that 2026 should be a better year for Telefónica. The most punished values ​​usually recover the following year and the analyst consensus sets a target price of 4.04 euros per share, 16% above current levels.

Besides, The IBEX 35 has closed its best year since 1993. The index closed with a revaluation of 49%, driven mainly by banks and their record results.

And now what. Telefónica faces 2026 with a more austere discourse on balance sheet and debt. The key is no longer in the strategic announcement, but in its execution. The market has discounted the dividend cut and what remains is to demonstrate that the new remuneration policy, linked to cash flow, is sustainable over time.

For now, the year starts with an ERE that will cost 2,500 million euros and will save about 600 annually starting in 2028. Will that be enough to convince investors without sacrificing the commercial capacity that has allowed them to gain customers again?

In Xataka | Telefónica has gone from 67,000 workers in 1997 to 25,000 today. And his plan is clear: go even lower

Featured image | Telephone