While the news says that it is dying between solar panels and expropriations, the data says the opposite

Solar panels that destroy olive trees, massive expropriations in Jaén, warnings that Spain will have to import oil… If we pay attention to the last few months of news about the world of olives, the conclusions are clear: these are bad times for the olive grove.

And yet, the data does not confirm this. In fact, as they point out from Datadistathe surface area of ​​this crop has not stopped growing in the last 10 years.

The olive grove does not stop growing. With the only exception of the small decline in 2022 (0.08% already recovered in 2023), the hectares of olive groves have grown every year. However, that does not mean that there is no problem. Almost the opposite.

The olive grove grows, but it does so in a profoundly unequal way: irrigated land gains ground over dry land, the super-intensive olive tree in a hedge extends over land previously dedicated to cereal or cotton, and investment funds are concentrated in areas with more water.

In this sense, the story is not about the disappearance of the olive tree. It’s about changing so much and so fast that it will soon be unrecognizable.

What the data says. Apparently, the data is clear. According to provisional data from the Survey on Crop Areas and Yields (ESYRCE) 2025 From the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food (MAPA), the olive grove area in Spain reached 2,873,396 hectares, 1.63% more than in 2024 and 5% more than in 2015.

It’s just that if we look closely, that data tells a curious (and sometimes counterintuitive) story. For example: the olive tree is already the largest irrigated area in the country.

And why does this change occur? Above all, because the irrigated olive grove is safer than the dry one. If it were possible, the entire Spanish olive grove would switch to irrigation regime overnight. Therefore, the interesting thing is to stop and think about why the accelerated change is occurring now.

According to a February 2026 report from Datadistathe explanation has a first and last name: investment funds. In the last decade, these funds have gone from 45 to 1000, investment in “Iberian agribusiness” has tripled and this is converting many hectares into super-intensive olive trees (and abandoning the traditional one).

And the situation feeds on itself. The growth of the super-intensive irrigated olive grove cushions the volatility of supply and, therefore, contains price spikes. That is, the sector becomes more attractive to investors.

This is precisely what ensures the future of olive oil. Even if it is at the cost of changing it completely.

Image | Vasilis Caravitis

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