Fifty years after the Arabic embargo of 1973, which fired prices and changed the world economy forever, OPEC+ moves again. This time, it is still in the opposite direction. Instead of restricting the offer to make crude oil, the group led by Saudi Arabia and Russia has decided to continue with the open tap.
The announcement that stirred the market. The decision came after a video call between eight key countries of the OPEC+. According to the press releasethe group will add 137,000 barrels per day in October, first step to dismantle 1.66 million b/d that were still frozen until 2026.
The context matters: in April, the block had already surprised returning 2.2 million B/D a year earlier than expected. This acceleration resulted in a 12% drop in crude oil prices so far from 2025, According to Bloomberg.
The market immediately reacted. As Reuters has collectedBrent rebounded 1.95% up to $ 66.78 and WTI 1.94% up to 63.07. Analysts such as Ole Hansen (Saxo Bank) have interpreted the reaction as a classic “sells with the rumor, buys with the fact”: the increase was lower than anticipated, which relieved fears of immediate oversupply.
But why does the open tap continues? As Bloomberg has pointed outthe poster has abandoned the role of “price defender” and has pivated towards the recovery of market share. In addition, Saudi Arabia demands compensation to countries that have overcover, such as Kazakhstan, Iraq or United Arab Emirates. The gradual increase allows us to emphasize quotas and reveal who really has the capacity to pump more and who does not.
A deeper goal. The movement also has a political reading. According to BloombergMohammed Bin Salman will visit Washington in November, and the increases send a sign of goodwill to President Donald Trump, which has been demanding lower prices for months as a measure to contain inflation. Reuters He recalled That Trump has even hinted at a second phase of sanctions to Russia, which reinforces the logic of lowering oil.
The play also exposes an American contradiction. As we have detailed in Xatakalower prices relieve inflation and give political air to Trump, but at the same time suffocate fracking, cornerstone of the energy independence that he claims. Many shale companies need quotes of $ 60–65 to be profitable. If the Brent falls below that threshold, Trump’s “victory” over cheap gasoline could become a blow to one of the strategic sectors of his own country.
RUsia quiet in the OPEC+. In theory, Moscow should oppose: you need high prices to finance its war in Ukraine. In practice, accept the Saudi plan. In fact, Russia He already asked for a pause in Julysupported by Algeria and Oman, but was ignored.
The Russian lifeguard is in Asia. As the BBC explainedPutin met in Tianjin with Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi at the Shanghai cooperation organization. There he reinforced his links with the two largest buyers of his crude. On the one hand, China imported more than 100 million tons of Russian oil in 2024, almost 20% of its energy purchases. On the other, India multiplied its purchases to 140,000 million dollars from 2022, after western sanctions.
These clients, attracted by Russian discounts, are lifeguard that allows Moscow to tolerate lower prices in the OPEC+. For Modi, in addition, challenging Washington’s pressures reports internal political benefits, According to the BBC.
Why don’t prices sink? Despite the increase in supply, crude prices have remained surprisingly stable. Several factors help explain this resilience. First, the increases have been more nominal than real: effective production is below what announced, According to The New York Times.
To this is added the threat of new sanctions against Russia, which maintains a risk premium in the market. In addition, barriles return the “safety network” of idle capacity, which paradoxically limits the bearish pressure by leaving less margin against disruptions, Bloomberg warns. Finally, the Saudi “boldness” has reinforced the confidence of the operators: after the initial drop of 2025, the Brent stabilized around 66–67 dollars.
The Saudi paradox. In parallel, Saudi Arabia is reducing its internal oil consumption to release barrels to the international market. As we have pointed out in Xatakathe kingdom displays solar and storage projects that replace crude oil in electricity generation.
The logic is simple: each solar megavatio is equivalent to an extra barrel to export. This strategy strengthens its role in OPEC+, but generates fiscal tensions that have already forced megaprojects such as Neom, which is an early sign that the offensive to gain fee can hit the heart of the Saudi reformist agenda.
Horizon 2026. Beyond the present, the look is set in the future. According to ReutersGoldman Sachs projects a slight surplus in 2026 for supply improvements in the Americas and the weakening of Russian crude. Its forecast places the Brent in 56 dollars and the WTI on 52 on average that year. The Saudi strategy seeks precisely to reach that scenario with greater share and margin to cut if necessary.
According to Financial Timesthe real impact of October increase could be much more modest than it seems. Although the OPEC+ announced 137,000 additional daily barrels, analysts estimate that the effective figure will be around 60,000 b/d, since most countries involved pump almost at full capacity. Only Saudi Arabia and, to a lesser extent, United Arab Emirates have real maneuvering margin.
The decision, however, has an internal function: Riad takes advantage of the return of barrels to measure the production capacity of each member with a view to renegotiating quotas in the future. The true test will arrive in the fourth quarter of 2025, when the market must absorb a greater flow of crude oil in full season of weaker demand.
Chronicle of an announced break. In 1973, the OPEC paralyzed the West with an embargo that triggered prices. Half a century later, the same poster changes course: it floods the market to gain share, satisfies Donald Trump, discipline to the shale and seeks to reaffirm internal leadership.
The movement is not free: it reduces the capacity to respond to shocks, presses fragile members and increases internal tensions. But for now, the market endures.
The question is how long Saudi will play two games at the same time: continue reigning in global oil and finance its own energy transition without breaking the OPEP+ in the attempt.
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