They are Russian gas stations

Petroleum prices will rebound again in recent weeks. Brent rose 2.7% and the West Texas intermediate 1.1% this week, According to Reuters. Behind this volatility are the low, presumable expectations, of a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. This uncertainty is immediately reflected in the markets, which already discourage tougher sanctions against Moscow and a long war.

In fact, while Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump were gathered in Alaska, thousands of kilometers, Ukrainian drones reached a Russian refinery. Suggesting that war is no longer freed in Donbás. Now hits where Kremlin hurts most: oil.

Shortage in front of the bombings. In Russia, wholesale gasoline prices have shot at record levels. In a Financial Times report It is detailed That the most common fuel, the A95, reached 82,300 rubles per ton in the St. Petersburg Stock Exchange, 55% more than at the beginning of the year. The climb responds to a double pressure: the seasonal rebound in demand and damage to the Russian energy infrastructure caused by Ukrainian attacks with drones.

The population begins to suffer consequences. The drivers are already evidencing it: long lines, empty suppliers and rationing in regions such as Zabaikalsky, Crimea and the East end. According to the Moscow TimesRussia has lost about 13% of its refining capacity since the beginning of August, after attacks that forced the closure of at least four refineries. In Vladivostok, motorists wait up to two hours to refuel. “The suppliers are covered with posters of ‘out of service’,” said a driver to the local press.

Scarcity also has a historic echo. In some areas they have introduced “coupons” of fuel, a rationing mechanism that evokes the memories of the last years of the USSR. Crimea, annexed by Russia in 2014, suffers supply cuts. Sergei Aksyonov, regional chief designated by Moscow, has admitted to FT “Interruptions in some stations” and requested patience “until the end of the special military operation.” However, despite trying to contain the crisis with subsidies and prohibiting the export of gasoline on July 28, domestic demand remains without satisfying.

The drone offensive. According to the countryUkraine has launched in August a systematic offensive against the Russian oil industry, hitting refineries and distribution centers to hundreds and even thousands of kilometers from the border. On August 10, Ukrainian drones reached a Lukoil installation in the Republic of Komi, more than 2,000 kilometers, a record record. The attack stopped for days the production of one of Rosneft’s key refineries in Saratov.

These attacks are not new, but now they are more frequent and coordinated. The Financial Times He has stressed that unlike 2023 – when the damages were repaired quickly – in 2024 the campaign aims to leave several plants simultaneously for longer. The strategic objective, As the country explainedIt is double: show the Kremlin that it is vulnerable in its own territory and hit its main source of income, hydrocarbons, in the middle of the peace negotiations.

The chaos of the drones. Kyiv’s weapon are swarms of low and long -range drones, produced by mass. As my partner has detailed in XatakaUkraine manufactured 2.2 million drones in 2024 and wants to double that figure in 2025. But the battlefield has also become an electronic chaos: up to 60 drones can fly at just a kilometer in front, interfering mutually. Sometimes, Ukrainian countermeasures themselves against Russian drones leave their devices inoperative. In others, operators connect unwittingly to enemy transmissions. Even so, the strategic message is clear: drones allow Ukraine to hit away and erode the Russian war economy.

The forecasts. Analysts expect that gasoline prices in Russia will continue high at least until September, According to the Financial Times. Although a generalized national crisis is not anticipated – because the low demand after summer and part of the damaged capacity can be recovered – it is expected that the problems in remote and poorly connected regions are expected. Moscow could resort to imports from refined products from Belarus to cover part of the deficit. However, Ukraine seems determined to maintain his campaign. “There will be more,” warned the Ukrainian General Staff after an attack on the Syzran refinery in Samara.

A war laboratory. Beyond the economic, the conflict reveals two long -range trends. On the one hand, the war in Ukraine has become a military innovation laboratory, where drones resistant to interference, platforms with artificial intelligence and new electronic warfters are rehearsed, As we have pointed in Xataka. These lessons learned will mark the armies of the future. On the other hand, within Russia, the appearance of rationing by coupons connects the current war with collective memories of Soviet scarcity, an uncomfortable reminder that the costs of the invasion also reach everyday life.

A new front. The war in Ukraine has displaced its most visible forehead: it is no longer only in the trenches of Donbás, but in the tails of Russian gas stations. While Putin insists that Moscow maintains the military initiative, citizens face rations, queues and rising prices.

History suggests that shortage hits stronger than any projectile. The tsaries learned him at the beginning of the 20th century, when popular discontent undermined his power. Today, more than a century later, Kremlin see how the internal front can become its greatest vulnerability: if drones continue to attack refineries, the price will not only pay the economy, but also the population.

Image | Unspash and National Police of Ukraine

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