We are launching more rockets to space than ever. Between China and Spacex, they occur releases every few days in a new space race with multiple objectives on the horizon. It’s something that is lowering space transportationbut also generates a new problem: the amount of scrap that orbits our planet.
And this generates another conflict: with more satellites and rockets in orbit, the risk that a fragment of some of them hit a plane is increasingly high. At the University of British Columbia they have proposed to analyze it and have determined that, to anyone’s surprise, the consequences of the clash would be devastating.
The problem. Beyond the test rockets, transport of goods and people, something that is causing more and more launching are the satellites that bring the internet to any corner. There are several players in this segment, but Spacex carries the front with its program Starlink. These satellites are sent in rockets that, when they fulfill their function, lose height and return to the planet.
Some partially disintegrate and others, to the re -enter the atmosphere without controlthey fall anywhere. The ocean is usually the main receptacle, it is also possible that they fall in urban areas or that, on their way, they clash against a plane.
The probability. First of all, tranquility: the risk that these space debris impact an plane is still low, very low. According to The Aerospace Corporation, in 2021 (when they were thrown, but it was not the current fever), that risk was one between 100,000, or 0.001%. The system predicted, taking into account future releases, which by 2035 would rise to seven out of 10,000, or what is equal to 0.07%.
It is, as we say, a low probability, but that is there. In the study From the University of British Columbia they have analyzed how all this depends on air traffic density. Taking as an example the traffic of September 1, 2023, and the United States as a area, we can see that, every year, there is a 99% probability that the resentments of rocket bodies occur in green areas, 75% in the yellow, 26% in oranges and 0.8% in red.
Las Rojas are the most activity areas, such as the main airports, oranges are large cities and green and green move away from urban nuclei and, therefore, from the agglomeration of airplanes.
Long March 5B. Beyond the direct clash of this space scrap against a plane, something whose probability remains exceptionally low, there is another problem: the danger of happening and leads to the decision to cut the airspace. On November 4, 2022, the body of the Long March 5B rocket, 20 tons of weight, re -entered the atmosphere, falling on the Pacific Ocean.
All good, but it might not have been like this: the entrance location was the product of chance, since the body of the rocket was abandoned in the orbit and a planned design was not made for the re -entry of the remains.
Consequences. The night before the reentry, different surveillance agencies, as well as the European Air Safety Agency, issued reports in which they encouraged national authorities to restrict airspace “in a corridor of at least 70 kilometers and up to 120 kilometers on each side of the estimated reentry trajectory ”of the rocket.
Spanish and French authorities complied with this and They closed part of their airspace. As a result, 645 flights were delayed, with an average of 29 minutes per plane. In addition, some airplanes that were in full flight had to return to the origin airport or take a detour. It was the evidence of a lack of planning, anticipation and control over this space scrap.
Interestingly, Portugal, Italy and Greece did not make the decision to close, generating other problems in their airports due to the unexpected increase in air traffic due to deviant flights.
In purple, the airspace closed by the Long March 5B. In blue, his career and fall
Solutions. Unfortunately, although this is a problem that will go more, controlling the reentry of space debris is not something that has an immediate solution. The researchers propose that those responsible for launching rockets also invest in controllable reentry technologies so that they do not enter the atmosphere unpredictably.
These technologies include engines capable of re -effective to partially direct the rocket, but also a better mission planning so that the rocket falls into a remote area of the ocean, far from populations and, evidently, air traffic. The problem is that, although the technology is there, they estimate that less than 35% of the launches perform these controlled inputs and, with 2,300 bodies in orbit with an annual increase of between 30 and 40 bodies, the risks will continue to increase.
In 2001, the titanium engine coating of the third stage of a Delta 2, with a weight of approximately 70 kg, landed in Saudi Arabia, about 240 km from the capital
Obviously, it is also a huge money expense, so achievements such as catch the Starship propeller and the advances of Spacex engineers so as not to have launch and throw rockets They are so important. And a global protocol is also necessary to manage these resentments and make coordinated decisions, not to delegate everything in an aeronautical industry that is not responsible.
In the end, it is much more likely that there are alterations in air traffic due to this space garbage than to the clash of one of these remains with a plane, but whenever this probability is not zero, solutions must be contemplated.
Images | Nature, Spacex