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In just three weeks we have seen several warm episodes and what is more, some experts already foresee the arrival of the first heat wave of the year. However, these temperatures that await us are not the only heat that Meteorologists interest. And there are good reasons behind.
A very hot Mediterranean. The Mediterranean Sea is reaching temperatures that we had not seen in at least four years and considerably higher than what would correspond during these days of the year. The Data offered by SOCIB (Observation and coastal prediction system of the Balearic Islands) indicate that the temperature is above not only the average of the temperatures observed at this time in the period 1982-2015, it would also be above the 90th percentile of the observations and the data recorded in recent years.
According to the socib data compiled on June 12, on average, the surface of the sea presents a thermal anomaly of 2.26º Celsius above what on average would be at this time during.
Different areas, a similar story. The situation is especially striking in the Western Mediterranean, where thermal anomaly reaches 2.65º. In the surroundings of the Balearic Islands the sea surface is located at an average of 3º above the average, with the waters of the National Park of the Cabrera archipelago registering an anomaly of 3.18º.
Although in the Eastern Mediterranean the thermal anomaly is lower in absolute terms (1.9º), it also exceeds the 90th percentile of the data compiled at these dates between 1982 and 2015. Something similar occurs in the sea of Alborán, one of the few areas of the Western Mediterranean than with a lower growth than 2º (1.64º specifically), but also above the percentile.
What is happening? According to Explain the meteorologist Duncan Wingen in Meteoredthere are three factors that have taken us here. In the first place, the absence of winding wind, a “natural refrigerator” that cool the sea facilitating the evaporation of surface water and the outcrop of the coldest and most deep waters.
Second, the stability caused by subtropical anticyclones that have dragged warm air masses and left clear skies. Finally, it should also be taken into account where we came from: according to the Socib datain recent years the surface temperature of the Mediterranean has been almost constantly above the average. In fact, the last time temperatures were seen below this average was in April 2022.
The forecasts. The situation seems to change, at least not better. According to the models From the European Center for Middle Term Meteorological forecasts (ECMWF), towards next Wednesday, a part of the central Mediterranean near Naples could show thermal anomalies between 4.5º and 5º. A significant part of the Central Mediterranean and the Alborán Sea for their part could show anomalies above 3.5º.
The forecasts still get worse if we advance until Monday 23: ECMWF models calculate that broad areas of the Western Mediterranean could present thermal anomalies of between 5th and 5.5º. Towards that weekend the bulk of thermal anomaly could move to the east.
It could be then when normality would return to the Western Mediterranean, even with a slight cold anomaly in areas near the coast. It should be noted that these are medium -term forecasts so uncertainty must be considered.
Why does the Mediterranean matter so much. The question of why meteorologists are interested so much for the temperature on the high seas has to do with the fact that it affects what happens on the mainland. High maritime temperatures make warm and humid air rise in the atmosphere.
This favors the appearance of storms with greater destructive capacity. Surely the best example of this we will find the hurricanes but the Mediterranean also has examples Beyond the appearance of hypothetics Medicanes o Mediterranean hurricanes: Danas or “cold drop” are examples of the virulence that storms can reach in the Mediterranean basin.
Image | ECMWF / Florian Osmers
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