Imagine a future where humans no longer have to work because AI does everything for us. It is an idea that has been in the mouths of figures of the stature of Bill Gates and Elon Musk, who believes that “working will be optional”. Now it adds Geoffrey Hinton, Nobel Prize in Physics in 2024and his approach is quite pessimistic.
An idyllic future. Depending on who says it and how they say it, the future sounds like a utopia where humans dedicate themselves to living life in a kind of permanent retirement. This is what is distilled from speeches like that of Elon Musk, who is committed to a universal basic income so that only those who want to work can work. Jensen Huang, CEO of NVIDIA, and Bill Gates are not so forceful in saying that AI will completely free us from work, but they do believe that it will be the definitive boost to the four-day workweek in even three days.
Or not so much… Geoffrey Hinton has joined the debate and, as we are accustomed tohis position is much more pessimistic. During a debate with Bernie Sanders at Georgetown UniversityHinton talked about the impact that AI will have on the labor market and his prediction is that AI will make human work obsolete, causing mass unemployment with unprecedented economic and social impact.
A different threat. Technology has destroyed many jobs, but for Hinton this technological revolution is different from others because “People who lose their jobs will have no other jobs to go to. If AI becomes as intelligent as people, or more so, any job they can do can be done by AI.” He believes that it will mainly affect office positions, calls “white collar” professionssuch as analysts, customer service positions or junior programmers.
Side effect. During the talk, Sanders and Hinton criticized the path that large companies are taking with billion-dollar investments in data centers for AI. “If you’re wondering where these guys are going to get the billions of dollars they’re investing in data centers and chips… one of the main sources of money will be selling AI that will do the work of employees for much less money,” Hinton said. However, he pointed out that this will have a collateral effect: “If the workers do not get paid, there will be no one who will buy your products…they haven’t really thought about the enormous social disruption we will have if there is very high unemployment.”
The promise of AGI. For these predictions to be fulfilled, both the most optimistic and the most pessimistic, an AGI is needed (a general artificial intelligence that is as capable as a human being). AI companies have been around for a long time making us believe that the AGI is about to fallbut the promise of imminence seems more related to a need to finance the insane investment than to reality. The most sensible voices, such as Andrej Karpathy, suggest that the AGI will take at least another decade to arrive.
Hinton admitted that AI still fails at basic tasksbut warns that we are still in the early stage and “it is improving exponentially.” Although in this case he did not give a date, according to previous statementssees it “quite likely that at some point in the next 20 years AIs will become smarter than us.”
The impact of AI on employment. That AI takes our jobs has become one of the great fears of society. At the moment the studies that are being carried out point in different directions, from those that say that It’s barely impactingto those who say that it mainly affects the recent graduates entering the job market. According to the World Economic Forum report92 million jobs are expected to be destroyed by 2030, many of them due to automation facilitated by AI. However, it also foresees the creation of 170 million new jobs, also associated with the arrival of AI.
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