Last July 28 is He published a study of the Institute of the School of Economy of kyiv where the situation of the vast Soviet arsenals that Russia had been using since the beginning of his invasion in Ukraine was analyzed. The analysis left no doubt: they were exhausting shipments from the main Russian military stores.
Now, this study has added graphic evidence.
The decline of reserves. Yes, in Another study recent intelligence of Ukraine, based on satellite images and published by the Jompy researcherit is confirmed that Russian tank reserves are entering a critical phase of exhaustion.
The detailed monitoring of military deposits shows that the constant extraction From armored, together with the industrial disability to restore them to the necessary rhythm, it is racing in a accelerated way of Moscow to sustain the war in Ukraine with modern combat cars.
Exhaustion and obsolete tanks. The nerve center of this deterioration, according to satellite imagesis the 1311 deposit, where they are withdrawing around 20 T-72b tanks a month. If that rhythm is maintained, the warehouse will be empty before the end of the year, an unexpected fact even for analysts who follow the evolution of Russian material.
This emptying adds to the exhaustion of stocks close to the Uralvagonzavod plantmain tank factory in the country. Even more revealing is that 1311 no longer counts With T-80BVwhich suggests that Russia would have completely consumed that line of reserves. The presence of T-80ud In base 22 it does not alter the panorama, as these vehicles are not suitable for reconditioned. Given this shortage, they have begun to be extracted T-55 and T-62tanks of the fifties and sixties whose reappearance in Omsktransash indicates a forced setback towards obsolete models.
The problems of the industry. The lack of recent updates in the images of Base 6018 points to the fact that Omsktransash, one of the pillars in armored repair, faces It would be difficulty to maintain an adequate restoration rhythm.
The need to resort to infantry combat vehicles (BMP), which originally were not part of the lots stored in 1311, reflects the improvisation with which Russia is trying Cover empty in its mechanized arsenal. The general picture reveals an industrial pressure that fails to sustain the war demand, partly because vehicles extracted are in deplorable conditions after storage decades.
A Russian T-80BV
No strategic reservations. Once 1311 is emptied, Moscow will be forced to resort to Deposits 349 and 2544where the T-72awith 586 and 215 units respectively. However, most are in poor condition, which limits the real effectiveness of this resource.
The projection is bleak: when these reserves are exhausted, Russia will depend almost exclusively on T-55 and T-62, which represent barely 16% of the inventory of armored prior to the invasion of Ukraine. Quality degradation is evident: of third generation models, relatively modern, to platforms that decades ago they are considered overcome in any scenario of contemporary war.
And without artillery. It We count A few weeks ago. The decline is not limited to tanks. Previous reports had already indicated that Russia has consumed almost Half of your reservations of artillery towed in the Shchuchye deposit, which housed about 50% of all this material in the country.
In addition, the pace of reactivation of pieces It has collapsedbeing currently more than four times lower than that registered in 2022, confirming the progressive inability to reconstitute the power of terrestrial fire.
A step back. The news has a clear background: the wear war in Ukraine has led the Russian army to a point where its formations are experiencing a “DESMECCANIZATION”that is, a setback from the classic model of armored regiments to infantry -centered units that advance in motorcycles, light vehicles without protection or even on foot.
This phenomenon does not imply that Russia is losing war, since its numerical superiority in personnel allows you It limits severely Moscow’s ability to transform those tactical advances into deep and strategic ruptures of the enemy front.
Strategic implications. This panorama suggests that Russian war machinery faces a Structural limit difficult to overcome. The apparent initial abundance of Soviet reserves is being replaced for the urgency of resorting to material practically museum.
Each T-62 or T-55 deployed on the front not only lacks the necessary benefits against drones, anti-tank missiles and guided artillery, but also exposes crews to crews A higher risk In modern fighting. The loss of contemporary armored armies will reduce the Russian offensive capacity, will make it slower and will force their controls to rethink mechanized assault strategies, which have already shown vulnerability in Ukraine.
Image | Google Maps, Jompy/X, Alan Wilson
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