bananas prices are in the clouds and the explanation is as simple as it is difficult to solve

At the beginning of the year, The Nightmare of the Canary Islands banana lasted 24 months. From January 2023 to October 2024, only in three months of the 22 the banana has had a “remunerative” price. The situation was terrible, almost unsustainable.

And then, the penultimate week of February arrived.

Since then, continuous increases in the price of the Canarian bananas have created a situation that we have not seen for a long time: up to four euros per kilo in the supermarket and 1.5, in origin. The banana is in the clouds.

What is happening here? That is, how is it possible that the situation has changed so much in such a short time? And the answer, although it is the product of two different situations, is surprisingly simple.

The first is the week cuttingl. As analysts recognize, on the islands, the weekly bananas cutting has been reduced. At the beginning of March (the latest estimates available), The figures were “Below eight million a week and even seven, which means much less embedded fruit.” That, by pure offer-demand, tends to raise prices.

The second is banana scarcity. Because yes, the banana (the “banana dollar”) is the main competitor in the peninsular Spain of the Canarian banana. In fact, As Román Delgado explained in the Canary Islands now“Last year, half of the market share of this fruit in Spain has already been clear.”

Well, the shortage of Canarian banana has coincided with banana shortage. The result is that, well, prices have shot.

Above all, because the demand has remained. So Sergio Cáceres has recognized itManager and director of Marketing and Communication of the Association of Organizations of bananas producers of the Canary Islands (ASPROCAN), the organization that brings together 100% of the Canarian producers. And it is not uncommon: as we have learned with olive oil, The inelasticity of demand It is the main trick of national producers in times of crisis.

So … the problem is already solved? The answer is also simple: no. Of none menra. To start because There are not two good months that can ‘cure’ the wounds caused for 24 bad months. Current prices are a good news, but teaching producers accounts requires some commercial stability. And not four euros per kilo. It doesn’t take so much. Just have remunerative prices for a prudential time.

Secondly, for something that is closely related to this: the market is terribly volatile. The commercial chaos of recent weeks makes anyone really know what will happen to product flows worldwide. Who can assure that all bananas will not reach Europe in Europe that cannot be sold in the US (for tariffs)?

Carpen Diem. Anyway, it would be fool not to celebrate that the islands have left their peculiar silver nightmare. It only remains to expect prices in the supermarket to begin to normalize and the increases do not erode the demand. In the coming years, we will have to make many decisions around the agricultural sector and the better we get to them, the better.

Image | Kamila Maciejewska | Doğan alpaslan demi̇r

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