usatoday24
Throughout the year and independently of its state, almost constantly, meteorologists from different parts of the world monitor the swings of the southern oscillation of El Niño, Enso for its acronym in English. It is not for less, to go and return apparently capricious of this climatic oscillation affects, to a greater or lesser extent the meteorology of half the world. In some areas it is much that depends on what happens in a narrow strip of the Eastern Pacific.
A very uncertain panorama. The World Meteorological Organization (OMM) has published its latest update on The status of Ensothe oscillation between the events of El Niño and the Girl. According to the report, we are in the neutral area of the oscillation: the girl vanished a few months ago but the boy does not finish appearing.
The forecast draws an uncertain panorama: great probability that we stay in a neutral state But with the door open to a 180º turn: the return to the girl.
The oscillation of the southern El Niño. A little context. The boy and girl They are the two faces of a climatic oscillation whose epicenter is in the central strip of the Eastern Pacific. When surface water in this oceanic region is heated we talk about the El Niño phenomenon.
The El Niño phenomenon especially affects South America and more specifically west of the continent, where it usually makes rainfall increase, often causing extreme events such as floods. The child is also associated with impacts on very different regions, From North America to Asia.
The other face of El Niño. El Niño’s last event vanished in mid -2024, giving way to the girl towards the end of the year. The girl It is the other face of this oscillation. If the main consequence of El Niño is an increase in rainfall on the Pacific coast of South America, the girl is associated with less rainfall and a greater probability of drought.
The girl also left. In fact, the girl’s last event was shorter and more weak than expected.
Back to the start box? The predictions included In the latest OMM report they point out that there is 70% probabilities that this neutrality between the boy and the girl is maintained between June and August, while there is a 30% probability that we return to A second event of the consecutive girl.
In the longer term this second scenario Win probability: If we consider the period between July and September, the probability of neutral conditions is reduced to 65%, while the probability of a new event of the girl ascends to 35%. In any case, a transit to the child seems unlikely from here to September.
When will we leave doubts? Spring is usually a time of weather uncertainty and that also applies to the oscillation between the boy and the girl. Meteorologists talk about the “Spring predictability barrier”, And once we transfer it we can have a better vision of what is expected this year.
Will it affect us? It is clear that southern oscillation has an important weight in the Americas and especially in some areas. However, Enso is a global phenomenon capable of disrupting meteorology into the most disparate places, including Europe.
If the child usually associates with warmer temperatures globally, the girl can make Europe and the rest of the world see lower average temperatures this winter. This can give us a new and small respite with respect to what we saw in 2024, the year in which we live the combined effect of the temperatures associated with climate change with an El Niño event that implied that the world began to beat numerous temperature records.
In Spain, the end of El Niño’s last event brought us the end of the drought, and that is that experts point out that in terms of rainfall in Europe, Enso’s effects can vary between areas. In the southwest, the girl It is associated with more rainfallso the girl’s return could help keep drought at bay.
In Xataka | 250 million years ago, 80% of earth species disappeared. These researchers believe it was a hyperniño
Image | Climate.gov/nnvl
GIPHY App Key not set. Please check settings