Among the areas in which Google Deepmind works, Meteorological prediction It is one of the most precision is obtaining thanks to the refinement of artificial intelligence tools designed for it. And the company has just demonstrated that AI can overcome traditional methods in hurricane prediction. And is that your model Weather Lab managed to forecast more accurately The trajectory and intensity of Hurricane Erinwhich went from tropical storm to Category 5 in less than 24 hours A few days ago.
The first real exam. Until now, the meteorological models were a promise. Hurricane Erin became the first real -time fire test for the Google system. During the first three critical prediction, the artificial intelligence model exceeded the official forecast so much of the National Center for American Hurricanes such as several traditional physical models, including the most reliable Europeans and American.
How it works. Traditional models are based on complex physical equations that recreate current atmospheric conditions: humidity, pressure, temperature. Google’s approach It is radically different. Its AI has been trained with a massive data set that includes historical weather information of the entire land and a specialized database with details of almost 5,000 cyclones observed during the last 45 years. “They match these long historical data with details about how hurricanes behave and statistically combine them to see patterns that the human eye could not detect,” Explain James Franklin, former head of the Hurricane Specialists Unit of the National Hurricane Center.
Why does it matter so much. The precise prediction of hurricanes is vital to know what type of measures are needed to protect themselves from them in case of emergencies. The three to five forecast days are crucial to make decisions about evacuations and preparation measures. In Google’s internal tests With storms of 2023 and 2024, its model managed to predict the final location of the cyclones with about 140 kilometers more precision than the European model (ECMWF), considered the most exact available.
Exceptional performance. Franklin stands out The performance of the Google system: “It really surpassed the other guides in terms of intensity. It captured the general form of the change of the life cycle almost exactly. practically without error.” The model not only succeeded in the trajectory, but predicted with surprising precision how Erin’s intensity would evolve throughout his life cycle.
Still in development. Despite success, the Google model is not ready for public use. Weather Lab includes a warning that recommends trusting the official forecasts of the National Hurricane Center. However, Franklin It is optimistic About the future: “For next year, you will receive a very serious look and will really play a role in the forecasts that leave the Hurricane Center.”
Cover image | Brian McGowan
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