The new data almost rule out the impact

The impact probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 has fallen from 2.8% to just 0.16%, according to the Coordination Center of objects close to Earth Earth. NASA, meanwhile, has gone from an estimate of 3.1% (The highest since these records exist) at 0.28%.

Almost-off risk. Space agencies have more and more data from 2024 YR4 because they have been incorporating new observations throughout their exhaustive monitoring of the asteroid. Therefore, and although it has been fluctuating in recent weeks, the most reliable estimate of its trajectory is what the European and NASA space agency has just published.

With A possibility between 625 that the asteroid falls on Earth on December 22, 2032 (one between 357, according to NASA), ESA believes that we can soon rule out all the risks associated with 2024 YR4.

What has changed. The new observations from large telescopes such as the Great Canary Islands Telescope, 10 meters in diameter, have allowed astronomers Reduce the uncertainty window in its calculations on the asteroid orbit. The range of options has been closed that the object crosses the earth in 2032.

With current information, the Earth is on the verge of probability distribution, on the edge of that uncertainty window. If the fan had continued closing with the earth in the center, the probability would have continued to rise, but now the planet, to explain it visually, is about to get out of the graph to stop being a concern.

The Webb will help discard it at all. The Webb Space Telescope, with its extraordinary sensitivity to observe infrared, will be key to rule out the probability of impact. The asteroid is moving away from Earth at this time, But the Webb can continue seeing it until Mayunlike the normal telescopes they observe in the visible.

The observation hours already reserved by NASA, ESA and the Canadian Space Agency with the Webb Telescope will be extended until May. Among other things, these sessions will determine the size of the object, which is estimated between 40 and 90 meters, in the absence of knowing the reflectivity of its surface.

Chronology of an asteroid. 2024 YR4 was discovered on December 27 by the last system of land impact of asteroids (Atlas) from Chile, but did not caught the attention of astronomers until Automatically appeared on NASA’s Sentry list on December 31 for its impact risk greater than 1% with the planet Earth.

The asteroid will go down in history as the first object for which activated the planetary defense action protocols established by the UN in 2018. Since then, space agencies have coordinated as many observatories as possible to follow it carefully. In May they will meet to deide what to do, unless the danger has been completely discarded.

Image | THAT

In Xataka | The impact probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 has risen to 3.1% (1 of 32): why the UN waiting for May to act