NASA ends up announcing that this large asteroid has a 1% chance of impacting with the earth. That is not normal

At the end of March last year, NASA launched a very special statement. The agency came to say that the biggest object that will happen near the earth will be An asteroid that will approximate 32,000 kilometers And it can be seen with the naked eye on April 13, 2029. A few hours ago, NASA has given another “those” news. They have found a meteorite distinct To all we know.

YR4: Impact risk. As we said, NASA has issued a statement About an asteroid called as 2024 YR4 Discovered at the end of December 2024 by the Atlas system in Chile. This object has drawn attention because it presents a probability of impact superior to all recent meteorites: 1% for December 22, 2032which makes it one of the asteroids with the greatest potential risk of collision registered to date.

With everything and as we usually say in these cases, this estimate will possibly change as new observations are made, with expectations that the probability of impact decreases.

Classification and risk. The asteroid has an estimated size of between 40 and 91 meters in diameter, similar to that of the object that caused the Tunguska event in 1908. Therefore, currently It is classified at level 3 of the Torino scaleindicating a real probability of impact that merits monitoring, although, again, its level is expected to be reduced as more data will be obtained.

This scale, used to evaluate the risk of asteroid impact, goes from 0 (without danger) to 10 (catastrophic collision). In any case and for us to get an idea, before this finding there was no recorded asteroid with a score greater than 0 on the Torino scale.

Closeness and probabilities of impact. The closest step of 2024 YR4 is estimated at 0.00001 Astronomical Units (AU) of the Earth, which is equivalent to 1,500 kilometers away, that is, closer than many satellites in terrestrial orbit.

At the moment, The impact probability is 1 in 83 (Approximately 1.2%), which has generated that concern in the scientific community. However, and although we look repetitive, it is important to underline that the experience with similar asteroids indicates that these probabilities usually decrease after more analysis.

Precedents There have been cases of asteroids that have reached higher levels on the Torino scale and were subsequently discarded as threats. An example is 99942 apophis, which in 2004 reached level 4 due to a probability of 1.6% impact in 2029, Although subsequent studies eliminated any risk In 2029, 2036 and 2068. Therefore, it is feasible to think that asteroid 2024 YR4 in the future is reclassified at level 0 As their orbital calculations are related.

Possible consequences and monitoring. To put ourselves in the worst of the stage, with a possible impact, 2024 YR4 would not represent a global extinction event, but could cause significant damage if impacting a populated area, similar to the famous Tunguska event that swept a vast region in Siberia. Therefore, NASA and other space agencies will continue to track their trajectory and refine the calculations to confirm their destination.

Although The American agency has emphasized its statement that the probability of impact is still low (about 1%) and that this type of initial evaluations tend to be corrected over time, also ends up underlining that it will adjust its predictions ensuring that any potential risk is properly evaluated and, if necessary, addressed With planetary defense strategies.

Image | POT

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