Returning to the Moon before 2030 begins to seem like a political fantasy

This same week we learned that the Artemis II mission, which was to put humans around the Moon again, it had to be delayed. The old ghosts of the space program, as it is the complexity of liquid hydrogenhas once again been a blow to NASA, which is increasingly closer to SpaceX to delegate part of its space missions.

Hydrogen as a cursed inheritance. As a reminder, all the problems with Artemis II have arisen during the general refueling test, since it had to be stopped when a leak was detected in the hydrogen fuel lines.

For fans of the show, this sounds awfully familiar. They are faults traced to which The Artemis I mission has already suffered and that seem inherited from the Space Shuttle era. Liquid hydrogen, being the smallest molecule in existence, has an astonishing ease of escape through the slightest imperfection, a situation that has been recently aggravated by the extreme cold on test platforms.

The dependence on SpaceX. While the SLS rocket shows signs of technical and budgetary fatigue, with Boeing threatening staff reductions amid this crisisNASA is forced to pivot increasingly toward the private sector. This is where SpaceX meets with open arms.

The current plan is complex: the SLS must put Orion capsule in orbitwhich will then be coupled with the SpaceX human landing system (HLS) to go down to the lunar surface. However, the SLS delays put at risk the entire chain of missions that come after such as Artemis III that could go until 2028.

It has its challenges. But SpaceX is not completely perfect, since for the Starship HLS to reach the Moon, it requires an orbital resupply maneuver that could involve up to 12 prior tanker flightsan unprecedented logistical complexity.

Although Starship also faces its own challenges and delays, different sources indicate that is the only lander contracted with real capacity to operate before 2030. Although NASA has opened the door to Blue Origin for later missions seeking to diversify, today, without SpaceX, the lunar rhythm would collapse.

Until exhaustion. While SLS struggles to overcome basic leaks, SpaceX is following its “break things to learn fast” philosophy. By the end of 2025, the company completed its eleventh test flightachieving a key milestone: the smooth and controlled splashdown of the upper stage in the Indian Ocean and the successful restart of the Raptor engines in a vacuum.

This flight marked the end of the “V2” era. Now, SpaceX transitions to Starship V3, an even larger and more capable beast, designed specifically to meet Artemis’ payload requirements. But introducing a new vehicle involves new risks and time-consuming certifications.

More than a rocket. We often forget that the Starship HLS is not just a transport vehicle; It will be the “home” of the astronauts on the lunar surface for a week, which further marks this dependence. Although it does not stop here, since SpaceX has completed

SpaceX recently completed 49 crucial contract milestones for NASA that go beyond propulsion, including life support that will keep the astronauts alive. Although they have also managed to validate the system for the descent of the crew on the moon or the Raptor engines that have demonstrated their ability to ignite after being exposed to the deep cold of space.

Dependency is a problem. With the current data on the table, the optimism of 2025 has evaporated, delaying the date of the different missions to return to the Moon. And although the SLS is currently a bottleneck, the immense complexity of the Starship operation, which requires an almost weekly launch chain, is the real wall against which Washington’s political dates crash.

Images | SpaceX

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