thermal lurches have weeks left

Suddenly and without warning, the cold has crept into Spain. More than half the country is waking up with temperatures close to zero And, although it is true that the afternoons are still mild, millions of people are faced with the big question of the moment: is it time to change clothes?

Or what is the same, translated into meteorological terms, is the cold here to stay?

What has happened? In reality, it is not so much what has happened, but what is happening and what is going to happen. Because in the coming days, we are going to see very rapid temperature jumps (“from ice to sun in 48 hours“, with increases and subsequent decreases). We have already seen it: Ciudad Real went from a minimum of 13 to a minimum of 5 from one day to the next. Teruel, Salamanca or Palencia dropped below zero degrees.

And, although in the abstract it is not strange that as we approach November the days are increasingly colder, the heat is holding so much so that the “saw teeth” are much more pronounced. Temperature changes are so marked that they are no longer just meteorological curiosities: they are causing problems in people’s daily lives.

Is it going to continue like this? This is interesting. According to AEMETNovember is going to be relatively warm at least during the first fortnight. Warm anomalies and above-average precipitation. However, the ECMWF suggests That’s where the “heat” ends.

To that first fortnight with thermal values ​​still above average and strong Atlantic circulation (i.e., more generous rainfall on the western slope); It seems that a second half of November will follow in which a possible pattern change will bring more normalized temperatures.

Because? On a technical level, what we are seeing is the product of an alternation of warm ridges and cold fronts. We are talking about mild days, open skies and thermal rises, followed by abrupt drops as cooler maritime air enters.

What does all this translate into? In a very pronounced thermal variability. That is to say, a heightened risk of isolated frosts in the interior despite the fact that the days are mild and pleasant. This will have strong impacts in agriculture (especially stone fruits and autumn products), in energy demand (at such an uncertain time) and health (the early arrival of respiratory infections).

All this punctuated by a series of Atlantic storms that will repeatedly impact the west; while the Mediterranean will be relatively calm with probable scares against DANAs or undulations of the jet stream.

So, is the cold here to stay? In the short term, no. The models point to a soft first half of November compared to the average, with occasional declines. The stable cold seems to be delayed until the second half of November.

Image | Tomer Burg

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