Nothing new under the sun, could be the slogan of these last months around oil. On Sunday, October 5, the OPEC+ reopened the tap with an increase of 137,000 barrels per day from November. According to the official poster statementthe measure seeks to “keep market stability” in the face of “healthy foundations” and a “stable global economy.”
However, the markets did not interpret it that way. Brent’s crude more than 8% fell After the ad, closing below $ 65 per barrel, its lowest level in three months. The political message, despite the rumors of more production, was clear: Saudi and Russia do not seem willing to give ground. In the words of Jorge León, Rystad Energy analyst: “The decision did not focus on the barrels, but on signaling.”
An oil tsunami. “The oil market is directed towards an immense surplus at the beginning of 2026 “, Analyst Javier Blas warns. According to the Macquarie Bank, the magnitude of excess will be “Cartoonish”, that is, almost caricaturescas proportions. When production exceeds demand, the market adopts a peculiar form: future prices become higher than those of the present. Is what operators call A countyan incentive to buy raw now, store it and then sell it at a higher price.
The problem, according to Blas himself, is that this time storing oil will be much more expensive. With US interest rates above 4% – 1% in 2020 -, finance the storage of millions of barrels will be “more difficult and expensive than in any other count of the last 25 years”. In other words: oil will be left over, but saving it will be expensive.
It is not the result of chance. The current situation is not explained only by market dynamics, but also by a complex network of geopolitical and financial decisions. For years, Riad led production cuts to sustain prices, but the Saudi government has now decided to relax those restrictions. As they have detailed in New York Timesthe change responds to the fatigue of producing below its ability to benefit countries that do not always comply with agreements. “The Kingdom has reassessed the cost of sustaining the profits of other producers,” said Helima Croft, of RBC Capital Markets. In addition, Mohammed Bin Salman seeks Maintain a fluid relationship With Donald Trump, who prefers lower prices for American consumers. As Bachar El-Halabi, an analyst at Argus Media, explains: “The Saudi understand that the United States is their most important strategic ally.”
The real increases have been modest and that analysts interpret the maneuver as a “proof of the limits of demand”, rather than a price war. In fact, the International Energy Agency (IE) estimates that OPEC+ He added 1.5 million barrels per day from the first quarter, well below the promised 2.5 million. For some analyststhis figure indicates that the market has absorbed the new volumes without shocks and that the demand could be stronger than expected.
China, Factor X. In parallel, from Beijing they have become the shock absorber of the global excess. The country has bought 150 million more barrels than you consume, spending about 10,000 million dollars in oil that does not need immediately.
A new energy law forces to maintain strategic reservations in both the public and private sector, the Asian giant has filled up to 90% of the measurable world storage. The reason, The analysts sayit is double: take advantage of moderate prices and guarantee their energy security to a possible conflict for Taiwan. As long as the excess continues, the global market will remain afloat. But the day China reduces its purchases, the overoferta will go to the surface with force.
Interest rates change the game. In previous times – as 2008, 2014 or 2020 – the traders took advantage of the counting to store oil and obtain insured benefits. But now, with the most expensive money, the business is complicated.
According to calculations cited by Bloombergif the types are kept at the current levels, the count must widen at least one dollar per barrel to compensate for the financing cost. In simple terms: so that saving oil will be profitable again, future prices will have to climb even more.
Effects on all fronts. On the one hand, prices are under pressure due to the excess so large. In this way, crude oil prices could fall below $ 60 a barrel. Blas warns that“The threshold of 60 dollars seems extremely vulnerable to the approximate supply tsunami.” For consumers, this would be good news: cheaper fuel and lower inflationary pressure, but for producing countries – especially those most dependent on oil – would involve a blow to their fiscal income. Saudi Arabia You need close prices at $ 90 per barrel to balance their public accounts, while Emirates can do it with 50.
On the other hand, international policy adds uncertainty. The Trump administration He has authorized For the first time the delivery of intelligence and long -range missiles to Ukraine to attack Russian energy infrastructure. If refineries or pipelines become objectives, the global supply could be altered just when the markets are already saturated. Paradoxically, too much oil and too much war could coexist at the same time.
The future scenario. The crude market advances towards an uncertain 2026. Analysts draw several possible paths:
The oil that no longer fits. For years, fear was to run out of oil. Today, the problem is the opposite: we will not know where to keep it. As Javier Blas has summarized: “A counting is coming; the only doubt is how deep it will be.” When that curve is invested and the tanks are filled, the world will discover that excess can also be a form of crisis. Oil, once again, not only moves the economy: it marks the pulse of global power.
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