The automobile industry is undergoing a technological transformation. And in addition to a transition to electric that is having a difficult time convincing drivers, there are vehicles that are increasingly more capable and dependent on manufacturers’ software. In this aspect, the functions of autonomous drivingwhich have been showing more legs lately. However, the gap between promise and reality is still considerable. More importantly, the level of full autonomous driving in commercial vehicles is still in its infancy.
Level 3 remains a pipe dream for most. Level 3 autonomous driving, which allows the driver to let go of the steering wheel and take their eyes off the road in certain conditions, has been heralded for years as the next big leap. ford just promised that its L3 system will arrive in 2028 as part of its new electric vehicle platform, according to Doug Field, the company’s software manager.
Technology is advancing in the automotive industry, but there is still much to do and each manufacturer is taking its own time. Mercedes-Benz, for example, has an operational L3 system since 2023, but it only works on mapped highways and at limited speeds. On the other hand, China has recently authorized to manufacturers such as Changan and BAIC to produce L3 vehicles, although restrictions on use remain strict. The reality is that these systems still require very specific conditions to function.
Meanwhile, AI comes to the dashboard. Those hoping for greater capabilities in autonomous driving seem like they’re going to have to wait a while longer, at least until AI assistants become normalized in vehicles.
In this regard, Ford has promised launch this year an AI-powered voice assistant that will first be available in its mobile application and then in the vehicle. The idea is that the mobile phone also accompanies the experience. In the official blog of the announcement they mention the example of being able to photograph any object to ask the AI if it fits in the trunk or cabin of the pickup, since in this case the model would have the exact dimensions of the vehicle.
The idea is that the system is designed to be compatible with different language models, including Gemini from Google, according to Ford. They are not the only manufacturers to be integrating AI into their vehicles, since chatbots like ChatGPT or Gemini are slowly reaching infotainment systems. Some examples of this are Mercedes-Benz, Opel, Volkswagen or Tesla, among others.
Promises. Ford explains that it is developing many of these components internally to reduce costs and maintain control, although it is not creating its own language models or designing chips like Tesla or Rivian. The company assures having managed to reduce the costs of its hands-free driving systems by approximately 30% while increasing capabilities.
The idea of this approach is to launch more affordable electric vehicles after the lukewarm reception of some of its proposals such as the electric mustang and the pickup F-150 Lightning. Ford also acknowledges that it does not want to get into “a TOPS arms race,” the metric that measures the processing speed of AI chips, unlike Tesla which boasts about the raw power of its processors.
China accelerates. The country represents a particular case. Daiwa Securities analysts cited by SCMP They estimate that almost 270,000 vehicles with L3 systems will be sold in 2026, approximately 1% of the total Chinese market. BYD and other local manufacturers They are doing massive testing in cities like Shenzhen, accumulating hundreds of thousands of kilometers of real data.
On the other hand, a report from Southwest Securities points out that the legalization of L3 vehicles could generate demand for components and software valued at 1.2 trillion yuan by 2030. However, Chinese authorities have tightened supervision after fatal accidents related to driving assistance systems, such as the one that involved a Xiaomi SU7 in March 2024.
There is still rope left for a while. While several brands are already announcing L3 systems for three or four years, what is coming now are incremental improvements, such as smarter voice assistants, improved hands-free on-road systems, or more polished user experiences. In this regard, Tesla continues to operate in China with its FSD (Full Self Driving) as a “hands on the wheel” technology, awaiting regulatory approval to operate hands-free. Most current systems are L2 or L2+, requiring constant driver attention.
ford assures that his team, made up of former Argo AI engineers (its failed L4 autonomous driving project) and BlackBerry specialists, is prepared to deliver. Many manufacturers aim to have autonomous driving functions within a few years. We’ll see how things progress in the end.
Cover image | Arcfox
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