Neither The aid. Nor the facilities for access education. Nor the improvement of working conditions. Not even attempts for Exercise “Casélro” and create new couples. The repeated attempts of the Japanese authorities to reactivate their Merm Birth They are clicking on bone and have not prevented the country from closing 2024 with a bleak demographic panorama. Its fertility rate is minimal, births have fallen below the barrier of 700,000 per year and the number of deaths far exceeds the babies.
Thus, the country faces a question that They have been Considering analysts: what can a government really do to encourage birth? Can you avoid collapse by looking for everything to the measures of Economic cut?
Birth. 2024 has not been a good year for Japanese demography. His Ministry of Health, Labor and Social Welfare has just confirmed it in A balance Desorator and confirms that, despite all its efforts, the country has not yet found the appropriate key to avoid collapse. Among all their data there are two special worrying and that give an idea of the descending drift that is drawing its birth: the fertility rate and births.
Last year the global fertility rate (the number of children that a woman would have if she lived until the end of her fertile life) It stood at 1.15. A bad result twice. Not only is it 0.05 points less than in 2023, but it leaves that indicator in historical minimums. This is the lowest recorded data From at least 1947which further away to Japan from the one known as Replacement ratethe necessary number of children (2,1) to maintain a stable population without taking into account immigration. In Tokyo that indicator It does not arrive Even 1.
A fact: 686,000 babies (and down). The other devastating fact for Japanese demography is that of the number of births. In 2024 the Japanese Ministry of Health accounted for 686,000, 5.7% less that in 2023. It is the first time in addition (at least since 1899, when the official registration began) that the number of annual lighting was below the 700,000 barrier. The Japanese authorities already had the birth would cross that psychological red line, but they expected it to do so within several years.
The forecasts of the National Institute for Research of the Population contemplated that 2024 be closed with some 755,000 new babies And that the births would not fall below the barrier of 690,000 to a decade and a half, in 2039. The predictions were pessimistic, but they have fallen short: that threshold crossed 15 years earlier than expected. ASAHI remember In fact, the 2024 data has coincided with the worst projection drawn by the body.
Losing population. The data of the Ministry of Health show only the photograph of the native population resident in the country, excluding both foreigners born in Japan and Japanese born outside their borders; but reveals a serious problem in the demographic engine of the nation. The reason is simple: more Japanese die than they are born. The 686,061 babies scored in 2024 remain away from the 1.6 million of deaths (1.9% more than in 2023).
That translates into a negative balance of 919,237 people, around 70,000 people more than the previous year. To understand what this data supposes in practice, Nikei Slide that equivalent more or less to lose all Kagawa in a matter of 12 years. That hole also adds to those that Japan has been suffering over the last years. After all, it carries almost two decades supporting more death than births, which is reflected in Evolution of its total population.
A small ray of light: marriages. Among all these negative data the balance of the Ministry of Health leaves one in positive: the number of marriages. The organism registered 486,0632.2% more than in 2023. They remain at low levels and below half a million, but leave the first increase in two years. And that is very relevant to birth. Although in Spain and other EU countries it is increasingly common That couples have babies without going through the altar, in Japanese society births outside marriage or de facto couples are still rare: Nikei remember which in 2023 represented 2.5% of the total.
A matter of state. Japan is not the only nation that dealt with birth problems. Something similar happens to South and China. And like them the Japanese authorities have deployed A wide fan of measures to try to reverse the trend that include from children’s subsidies or measures that facilitate education for initiatives to Promote creation of new couples.
“Focusing children related to children and parenting is something that cannot expect or postpone,” warned two years ago! Fumio KishidaJapan’s Prime Minister until last October. The problem worries enough to Tokyo for its executive It would be proposed Raise public aid by son to levels similar to those of Sweden and thus avoid that the nation lost “its ability to operate as a society.” That same year the government announced An ambitious plan to encourage birth to deploying a millmillionaire investment.
Can you solve with money? That is the question that leaves the last demographic balance of Japan and that have been raising analysts for a long time, both inside and outside the nation. Are economic -economic policies enough to encourage birth? There are those who indicate that at least these strategies must be accompanied by deeper changes and even A rethinking of certain ideas and attitudes rooted in their culture.
In 2023 Tomas Sobotka, deputy director of the Institute of Demography of Vienna, He pointed out some keys that feed the demographic crisis and that go beyond subsidies or married policies. The list includes the delay in the age of motherhood, cultural and social changes that lead to young people choose to remain single and without children, a change in the homes themselves, the greatest presence of women in the labor market and a philosophy of life that prioritizes professional ambitions and leaves little time available for parenting.
Insufficient solution to a serious problem. “In Japan there is a punitive work culture that demands long hours of work and a high level of employee involvement,” He reflected Sobotka “It is clear that the monetary repurities to families can only partially address the reasons behind low fertility.” Finding a solution to this decline in birth is a crucial issue for the nation, which already faces the “Problem 2025”an accelerated aging that will involve a challenge both socially and political, economic and welfare.
Can the government get more babies? The question is not ours. Motoko Rich launched it a few months ago in A broad analysis Posted in The New York Times In line precisely from the repeated attempts of Japan to activate its fertility, something that has been determined from the 90s without too successful. The issue is however beyond Japan and affects other nations that have tried to find the key to get their population pyramid to widen by the base, such as Italy, South Korea or even China.
“Defenders sometimes suggest that if paid family permits or free nursery are offered, the birth rate will shoot by magic. But for about three decades, Japan has been a laboratory for these initiatives and investigations show that even generous policies only produce slight increases,” Rich reflects. In the background, a key change: today children no longer contribute wealth to the family or guarantee the care of parents in old age. “We have reached a point where having children is a preference that implies paying and leisure sacrifices and professional development,” Add Poh Lin Tan.
Images | Junhø (UNSPLASH) and Nichiiro (UNSPLASH)
In Xataka | The birth crisis is gradually Japanese to Europe. And Italy is the spearhead of that change
GIPHY App Key not set. Please check settings