Europe is preparing for a large -scale war

That the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 activated all alerts in the rest of Europe is beyond doubt. First there was a warm way “Rearme”then they began to appear Ideas from the past and the first initiatives (special mention to the Automobile industry) where it was perceived that something was brewing. Then it was confirmed that it would start on the roadswith Italy giving the exit gun with An impossible architecture For war propaganda.

However, nothing like satellites to betray the real state of things.

Unprecedented reindustrialization. I told it in exclusive the Financial Times. The European arms industry has entered an accelerated expansion phase, multiplying by three the usual growth rate in peacetime and adding more than 7 million square meters In new facilities.

A analysis From the medium based on radar data from Sentinel-1 satellites of the European Space Agency, which covered 150 facilities of 37 companies, reveals that a third of the locations dedicated to ammunition and missiles shows clear signs of extension or construction. It is a generational change that is displacing the production model “just in time” towards an industrial base capable of sustaining a foot of prolonged warwith deep implications for the defensive capacity of the continent and the sustainability of the supply to Ukraine.

The role of the ASAP program. Much of this expansion is linked to European program Act in Support of Ammunition Production (ASAP), endowed with 500 million euros To solve bottlenecks in the manufacture of ammunition and missiles. Of the 88 sites associated with ASAP, 20 show substantial extensionsincluding new factories and roads, while 14 record minor improvements such as parking.

The plants dedicated to projectiles (especially 155 mm artillery) concentrate the bulk of the works, reflecting their strategic priority. Thanks to these investments, the annual ammunition production capacity in Europe will go from 300,000 units before the war about 2 million At the end of this year, with companies Like Rheinmetall increasing its production of 155 mm projectiles of 70,000 in 2022 to 1.1 million planned by 2027.

Outstanding expansions. In Várpalota, Hungary, Rheinmetall and the state -owned N7 Holding They have opened A 30 mm ammunition plant for the combat vehicle KF41 LYNXwhich in the future will manufacture artillery projectiles, ammunition for Leopard 2 and Panther, and will have its own explosive plant.

In Germany, MBDA expands its headquarters in Schrobesen with support of 10 million euros from the ASAP and a NATO contract for 5.6 billion dollars to produce up to 1,000 missiles Patriot Gem-T in European land. Norway has opened a Kongsberg plant, financed with 62 million dollarswhile Bae Systems invests More than 150 million of pounds in the United Kingdom, including multiplication for 16 of its 155 mm projectile production capacity in its Glascoed plant, Wales.

Economic impact. Although potential production increases, industrial and governmental responsible They warn that the real volume will still be below the installed capacity, and that certain areas remain vulnerable. Experts like Fabian Hoffmann They point out thatTo sustain deterrence against Russia, NATO must reinforce its ability to long -range missileswhose manufacturing is limited by the low production of miniature reaction engines and explosive loads.

These elements, together with aerial defense systems and drones, appear as possible objectives of a new European program of 1.5 billion euros that would replicate The ASAP model and would encourage joint purchase.

The delicate balance. The current growth is result both European funds and national orders, reflecting a political convergence around the need to increase industrial mass. However, this impulse faces the budget pressure from which We have already spokentogether with the complexity of supply chains and global technological competition.

In Baiba Braže wordsLastonia Foreign Minister, it is a “very positive and necessary” advance, but whose effectiveness will depend on the industry being ready to respond to The growing demand of NATO and that public resources are used effectively. If you want also, the challenge for Europe does not seem only to increase productive capacity, but to maintain it In the long termguaranteeing that the effort to rearma that is promoted so much is not diluted if the political or economic context changes.

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