Western Europe is about to become a pressure cooker. With the peak expected on Sunday the 21st and Monday the 22nd, the first major episode of extreme heat of the summer will not only be “one of the worst heat waves in modern history for this region“; it will be an unprecedented shock beyond the Pyrenees.
Because we cannot measure the magnitude of the event only in terms of absolute temperatures, but in terms of the anomaly between the usual climate and the degree of adaptation of each population.
Thus, in Spain we are going to have a bad time, but within the usual maximums in the middle of summer. In France, on the other hand, all forecasts give temperatures completely outside of any reference in modern history.
What is happening? In general terms, we can say that a powerful blocking anticyclonic ridge over the Gulf of Genoa (combined with the descent of a DANA to the west of the Peninsula) has pushed a dry and very warm Saharan air mass towards the north. However, the key element of the “dome” or “heat dome” is the quasi-stationary stability.
The temperature will begin to rise rapidly on the 20th and will reach “very high and persistent temperatures” that could last for a good part of the week.
We are talking about 36-38 °C in inland valleys and up to 40 °C in the eastern area and in parts of the southwest quadrant. In some areas local peaks of 42-43 °C will be reached.
Will there be very high temperatures? In a, let’s say, basal way, yes. They will be very high. However, it must be taken into account that between the descent of DANA to the west and the convection that may occur (there is still humidity in the environment) in many areas the wind could alleviate the maximums.
The real problem. It will be, as I say, a little further north. Much of France is indistinguishable (in geographical terms) from the Guadalquivir or Guadiana valleys. What made the weather good is the absence of stationary ridges like the one they are going to suffer: it is not unusual for them to suffer temperatures of 40 degrees or more between Sunday and Monday. They are anomalies of up to 20 degrees above normal.
And with an infrastructure not prepared for the heat.
We must not forget that heat is, by far, the meteorological phenomenon that kills the most in Europe. To size it up: the wave of 2003 left more than 70,000 deaths on the continent (about 15,000 in France, about 13,000 in Spain and another 20,000 in Italy); that of 2022, around 61,000. It is true that There is discussion about whether there are more factors in playbut the figures are terrible.
It’s time to get used to the idea… that this is the world we have to live in.
Image | Meteociel
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