With a spring that is has resisted arrivingit seems that temperatures are going to start taking the aftertaste of an incipient summer and, with it, the time of cooling comes. That is where the ice cream enters, that this year will be doubly protagonist, but not only because its price is going to be more expensive, but also because it will affect the Filipino drivers, but what will have to see the eggs to eat wheat? A simple ingredient: coconut oil.
Short. The price of coconut oil has shot in wholesale markets, reaching $ 2,700 by metric ton. As He explained Energy expert Javier Blas, this rise is not an isolated phenomenon and reflects a global tension market where coconut, a product traditionally associated with the tropics, has become the epicenter of a battle between food, cosmetic and energy industries.
He started with the boy. Yes, the meteorological phenomenon that He shook the world Between 2023 and 2024, where specifically in Southeast Asia they experienced an unusually warm and dry climate, seriously affecting coconut crops. Philippines, Indonesia and India, 75% responsible Of the world coconut oil production, they registered significant falls in their crops.
In addition, the child not only swept coconut crops, but also exacerbated drought conditions in areas where water is vital for palms growth. A coconut tree It takes between 12 and 18 months In producing a new harvest, which means that the effects of meteorological phenomenon will continue to feel until 2025 and possibly until 2026. This delay has created a perfect storm for the markets, where the supply continues to decrease while the demand continues to increase. However, this has only been the first blow.
A second blow. To this were added additional sources of demand: the rise of biodiesel and the tendency to position coconut oil as A slimming product and Other uses in beautydriven by social networks. This trend has diverted millions of coconuts from the food market towards the cosmetic market, further increasing the pressure on prices.
The coup of grace. At the same time, biodiesel has emerged as a new competitor for coconuts. In the energy sector promises “green” fuel in a hungry world of Sustainable alternatives. But this apparent sustainability has a hidden cost: less coconuts available for food means higher prices for consumers and lower margins for ice cream brands.
Biofuel? Almost two decades ago, the Philippines began to mix diesel With coconut methyl ester, a derivative of coconut oil. At that time, the mixture was 1%. However, in October 2024, the government increased the mixture to 3% and announced plans to reach 5% in 2026, as He has collected The energy analyst for Bloomberg. Each additional percentage point means diverting around 900 million coconuts to the biofuel market. If the Philippines reaches its 5%objective, 4,500 million coconuts will be used for biodiesel, which represents almost a third of the country’s annual harvest.
The relationship of both. The connection between vegan ice cream and biofuel is direct. Each coconut for biodiesel is a less available coconut for the food industry, but the relationship goes beyond simple coconut deviation. In a globalized market, price increases in a sector quickly have in others. For example, while ice cream brands look for alternatives to coconut oil, biofuel manufacturers can absorb additional costs with government subsidies, which puts food marks in a disadvantageous position, According to energy expert Javier Blas.
A coconut ball. A simple dessert that brings us a little freshness in a summer that will be hot, It becomes a mirror of the complexities of the global market. And this is how a simple coconut can be both an essential ingredient in the food industry and a key input for biofuel, competing for its place in an increasingly tense market. While Filipino drivers look for more affordable fuels and ice cream brands fight to maintain their margins, the final consumer feels the impact on each tablespoon.
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