China is openly promoting the development of humanoid robots as its next great technological revolution after its success with electric cars. A few days ago, according to NikkeiShenzen activated a plan that includes financing and political support to promote advances in components, AI chips and biomimetic technologies.
Why is it important. It is a movement that coincides and much with Elon Musk’s plans with Tesla, whose Optimus robot It could begin its production at the end of this year, first for internal use and then to market from 2026.
This convergence has a lot to do with the entrance of Tesla in China and the effect it had when transforming its electric car industry.
In figures. 56% of the 100 traded companies dedicated to robotics are based in China, according to A Morgan Stanley report. In addition, 45% of companies that customize robots for the end user are Chinese.
The context. This plan is accompanied by several similar initiatives since 2023. Shanghai wants to create a 1 billion yuan robotics industry (about 137,000 million dollars) this year. While, Beijing has announced a fund of 13,000 million dollars for robotics and a humanoid innovation center.
Paul Gong, head of automotive research at UBS Investment Bank, Describe To Musk as the “spiritual leader” of the sector, a paper that also played with electric vehicles. “The introduction of the concept of humanoid robot has led many Chinese companies to explore this address,” he says.
The threat. The intensification of geopolitical tensions could have consequences. Lu Hanchen, director of Shenzhen Gaogong Industry Research, warns that the United States could restrict the export of optimus robots to China and block the entry of Chinese humanoid robots into the US market, referring to concerns about data security and data management.
And now what? According to Bernstein Research projectionshumanoid robots could reach:
- By 2025: less than 10 million units for entertainment, R&D and education.
- By 2028: tens of millions for specific tasks in general environments.
- By 2035: more than 100 million for general tasks in hospitals and restaurants.
- By 2050: more than 1,000 million performing most human work.
The collaboration with Chinese suppliers will be basic for Tesla. At the same time, Chinese companies will move trying to reduce foreign component dependence.
It is an interesting paradox: Washington and Beijing have an increasingly tense relationship, but at the same time their industrial ecosystems remain intertwined. The race for humanoid robots is intuited as another scenario in which mutual dependence and atrocious competition between both blocks will have to live together. And the figure of Musk will win integers in that clash.
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