The recent history of Christianity in China is anything but simple. First for the Cultural Revolution and more recently, with Xi Jinping at the helm of the Communist Party, for repression against the unofficial churches. However, despite this troubled chronicle, experts tend to agree on something: in recent decades the Christian faith has expanded with force for the country.
So much so that it already clearly dominates certain regions and there is who considers that in no time China will be “the largest Christian nation in the world.”
How many Christians are there in China? The question is quite simple. Answer it, not so much. The China General Social Survey shows that between 2010 and 2018 the percentage of Chinese adults who identify as Christians (Catholic and Protestant) it was around 2%a percentage that can be found in essays about the matter. However, there is a quick search to find authors which differ significantly from that estimate, placing it at 3%, 7% or even 9% of the total population, which also includes children.
In 2020 The Economist pointed that only Protestants make up 3% of the country’s population, although there are studies that suggest the real figure could be much higher if unregistered clandestine churches are taken into account. The reality is that it is not easy to have a precise figure. The reasons are multiple: the control of information by Beijing, the diversity of sources and methods in making calculations or even the “linguistic and conceptual differences between religion in East Asia and other regions”, such as warns Pew Research.
How many believers are we talking about? The answer is again the same: it depends on the source. Although given the large size of China (1.4 billion inhabitants) even the most conservative calculations would leave a census of tens of millions. How many? Years ago, a Peking University study spoke of 40 millionWorld Population Review raises the estimate to 49.2 million and Visual Capitalist has even gone further, placing the figure close to 72 million.
Is there more data? Yes. Other sources speak of some 20 million of adults, 60 million if the global population is taken into account, or even 100 million. Although its considerable disparitythe data lends itself to two clear readings.
The first is the enormous weight of Protestants in the Chinese Christian community (some studies claim that represent 90% thanks to your great expansion). The second is that it is not necessary to resort to the most optimistic calculations to verify that China already surpasses (by far) the number of Christians in countries like Germany, France or Spain and would even be a handful of millions of believers in Italy if both Catholic and Protestant Christians are taken into account.
How are they distributed throughout the country? A few years ago Reuters produced a map based on the studies of Professor Fenggang Yang, from Purdue University, which shows the dominant confession in the different regions of China. The plan reflects that Buddhism prevails in most of the southern and southwestern regions while other areas such as Xinjiang or Gansu are Muslim. Catholicism and especially Protestantism shine on the eastern flank. Even in Zhejiang areadespite the challenges that believers have encountered there.
And what is the evolution? A quick Google search shows there are experts convinced that Christianity will continue to expand strongly in China and even place it among the countries in which the religion is experiencing greater growth, especially if we talk about Protestantism.
In 2016 Professor Yang predicted that in 2030 the Asian giant will be “the largest Christian country in the world” despite its enormous Buddhist and Muslim population, among other confessions. “If we use an average annual growth rate of 7%, there will be more than 224 million Protestants in China by 2030,” the expert reflectedwho specifies that they would represent 16% of the population. “If we add Catholics, it would take even less time for China to become the largest Christian nation.”
Does everyone have the same opinion? No, not everyone is so optimistic. In 2023 Pew Research published a study which suggests that, although Christianity expanded during the 80s and 90s (between 1982 and 1997 its faithful base went from six to 14 million), in recent years it has shown signs of “stabilizing.” As proof, they are based on official data that reflect that the percentage of Christian adults has barely changed between 2010 and 2018, without the pandemic having altered that picture.
Still, Pew Research recognize that, in general, “survey-based estimates of China’s Christian population could be conservative,” as there are believers who choose not to reveal their faith “for fear of negative social or economic consequences,” especially if they belong to an unregistered church.
Images | Gary Todd (Flickr) and Visual Capitalist (Pallavi Rao)
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