Sam Altman has pressed the red button on OpenAI. After three years of being the startup that terrorized Google, it is now Pichai’s company that has the creator of ChatGPT on the ropes.
Why is it important. OpenAI’s CEO sent an internal memo on Monday declaring “code red”: all resources are focused on improving ChatGPT. Projects like advertising in the free versionAI agents for health and purchasing or the deployment of the personal assistant Press are postponed.
The company that forced Google to react is now the one that reacts.
The backdrop. In 2022, Google panicked when ChatGPT changed our expectations about generative AI. Three years later, the roles have been reversed.
- Gemini 3, launched a few weeks ago, has surpassed OpenAI models in benchmarks key and in general it has arrived with a great reception.
- Marc Benioff, CEO of Salesforce, he said it bluntly a few days ago: “I’ve been using ChatGPT every day for three years. After two hours with Gemini 3, I won’t go back.”
The figures. Google has gone from 450 million monthly active users on Gemini in July to 650 million in October. ChatGPT maintains leadership with more than 800 million weekly usersbut the speed at which Google is advancing is what has set off all the alarms.
- The difference in spending capacity is abysmal: Google brought in $102 billion in just the last quarterwith three quarters coming from advertising.
- OpenAI projects to reach 20 billion revenues this year, but will need 200 billion by 2030 to be profitable according to their own projections.
- Its infrastructure commitments add up 1.4 trillion dollars in the next eight years.
The money trail. Google can afford to spend between $91 billion and $93 billion this year on AI infrastructure because it has a high-margin cash machine behind it.
OpenAI, on the other hand, continues to rely on funding rounds while racking up record losses.
Yes, but. OpenAI still retains advantages. Its 800 million weekly users represent a moat that can only be conquered person by person. ChatGPT is today synonymous with conversational AI in the same way that Google is with search.
Changing the habits of hundreds of millions of users is much more difficult than convincing a few CEOs to switch chip suppliers.
Between the lines. OpenAI’s refusal to monetize ChatGPT through advertising is increasingly inexplicable.
- Google dominated search precisely because it understood that an advertising model not only generates revenue: it improves the product.
- More users generate more feedbackmore purchasing signals allow for more personalized responses, and margins improve as scale grows.
OpenAI has been avoiding this evidence for three years, but it has not stopped signing spending commitments exceeding one trillion.
Unexpected twist. three years ago It was Google who declared code red in the face of the ChatGPT threat. The empire now counterattacks with an overwhelming structural advantage: control of distribution (Android, Chrome, Search, YouTube, Docs…), comfortable financial capacity and its own chips.
OpenAI has users, but Google has the money, infrastructure and patience to fight a war of attrition.
At stake. The question is whether OpenAI will survive as an independent company when its technological advantages evaporate and its business model continues to fail.
Altman He usually says that he doesn’t like to think too much about the competition.. Those days are over.
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