Throughout history, the cold has acted as a silent weapon that has changed the course of entire wars: in 1812, the Russian winter destroyed Napoleon’s army during their retreat from Moscow, causing more casualties than many battles. In the Winter War From 1939-1940, Finland used extreme temperatures and frozen terrain to hold back a vastly superior Soviet Union force, and in World War II, the winter of 1941 paralyzed the German troops at the gates of Moscow. In all cases, the cold accelerated defeats, collapsed logistics and forced decisions that were not in the original plan.
Something similar is starting to happen in Ukraine.
The cold as an accelerator of war. Winter has turned war into a race against time because extreme temperatures amplify the impact of each Russian attack against energy infrastructureforcing entire cities to live without heat, electricity or water for days or weeks.
With minimal close to −20 °C In many enclaves, each damaged power plant, each destroyed substation or each prolonged blackout is no longer just a technical problem but is a military and political factor that shortens the margins of resistance and pushes us to make decisions that are increasingly harsh and unthinkable until recently.
Energy as a goal. Since winter began in the war, Moscow has had clear your objective. Russia has systematically hit power plants, thermal plants and distribution networks again, knowing that the damage is cumulative and that repairing under constant bombing is almost as expensive as rebuilding.
Ukraine, for its part, has avoided a total collapse of the system thanks to quick repairs, generators and management increasingly flexiblebut the price is enormous: buildings without heat for weeks, networks saturated when the power returns and an exhausted population that lives pending of blackout and shelter schedules improvised.
Kamikaze logic. In this context, an unprecedented idea appears strongly, kyiv’s most extreme bet: to accelerate the war by attrition until it becomes unbearable for Moscow. The government has explained that the idea of causing up to 50,000 Russian casualties per month It is not proposed as a slogan, but as an explicit attrition strategy to force a negotiation based on the opponent’s weakness.
If you will, it is a flight forward that assumes that, if the war cannot be slowed down and winter multiplies the suffering, the only way out is to drastically raise the human cost for Russiaeven knowing that Ukraine will also pay a very high price.
The limits of the war of attrition. This strategy clashes with clear structural problems: lack of infantry, shortage of drone operators and a technological competition in which Russia has cut advantagesespecially in electronic warfare and fiber optic drones.
As many analysts point out, prioritizing the constant elimination of enemy soldiers can give tactical results, but it does not always solve the key problem of operating depththat is, the Russian ability to continue moving troops, ammunition and drones from the rear while the front remains stable.
The invisible front. In Insider told that the cutting off of Russian access to satellite communications systems via Starlink has shown the extent to which modern warfare depends on connectivity.
The interruption has generated specific disorganization in Russian units and has been celebrated in Ukraine as a key advantage, although it has also affected its own and civilian users, demonstrating that each technological gain is very fragile and requires constant management. In the middle of winter, any added failure in communications or coordination translates directly into more casualties and more chaos.
The unthinkable idea. As military and climate pressure accumulates wildly, I told a few days ago the new york times that a growing part of Ukrainian society start to contemplate through surveys what was previously little more than a taboo: accepting territorial concessions in exchange for firm security guarantees.
It is not yet a majority, nor even a decision made by the leadership, but the simple fact that it is being discussed reflects the extent to which the cold, blackouts and a war with no clear end are forcing a profound rethinking about what it means to win or simply survive.
A dilemma pushed by winter. What seems abundantly clear is that the scheme that emerges is hard and lacking in epic some: winter is literally freezing the population Ukrainian, and its effect is accelerating the war and narrowing the options.
Thus, Ukraine seems pushed to choose between maximally intensifying the kamikaze logic of the “50,000 Russians a month” to force a quick outcome or accept territorial concessions to stop the destruction before another winter just as bad or even worse. The cold does not decide on its own, there is no doubt, but it does act as the factor that has turned an already long and exhausting war into an urgent decision.
Image | armyinform.com.ua, 7th Army Training Command
In Xataka | “A human safari”: going outside in a Ukrainian city is now equivalent to being a shooting target for drones
GIPHY App Key not set. Please check settings