Europe enters September with an unexpected energy mattress: gas deposits are already 76% of its capacity. Just a few months ago analysts doubted that the continent reached the legal threshold of 80% before November. Today, it not only seems safe, but it is even forecast that reservations could touch 90% if the weather accompanies.
Short. According to Bloomberggas injections during spring and summer have been constant, thanks to a calmer market. The result is a level of reservations that, at least at least, the ghost of another energy crisis moves Like 2022-2023. Volatility has been reduced and European prices are maintained below those registered in August of the last two years.
The Europe Infrastructure Gas (GIE) confirms that European storage was 76 %, equivalent to about 85 BCM, a level of less than 92 % last year, but aligned with the average of the last decade.
A paradigm shift. First of all, Community regulations flexible. According to a June article by Bloombergthe EU will allow up to 2027 deviations of ± 10 percentage points compared to the objective of 90%, also extend in two months the deadline to complete it. This reduces the seasonal pressure of buying in summer at all costs, which in previous years fed speculation.
For its part, the global LNG market played in favor of Europe. As an analysis of Ron Bousso for Reuters points outthe fall in Asian demand released cargoes that flowed towards the continent. China, traditionally one of the largest buyers, reduced its imports due to an increase in internal production and commercial tensions with the United States. In fact, Beijing It is promoting Massively the extraction of shale gas and deep perforations, which points to a lower dependence on external LNG in the coming years.
Finally, the international offer grew. Bousso has pointed out that the worldwide capacity of LNG will expand from 550 BCM in 2024 to almost 890 BCM in 2030, led by the United States. Only in the first seven months of this year, their exports rose 22 % compared to the previous year, thanks to new plants on the Gulf coast.
Germany, the weak link. However, the photo is not uniform. Germany, the largest European consumer, remains the most vulnerable link. A report from the anadolu agency points out that German reserves They are 67%, well below neighbors such as France or Belgium. The installation of Rehden – the largest in Europe – barely reaches 23 % filling, According to Bloomberg.
The German delay has history: last winter left his deposits at 7%which forced to spend billions in their recharge. Berlin insists that his four floating terminals of LNG mitigate the risk, but the opposition warns of problems if a particularly cold winter arrives.
The Russian unknown. The war in Ukraine continues to weigh on the energy board. Although Russian gas imports have been drastically reduced, LNG cargoes still arrive, sometimes under interposed flags.
However, the European Commission presented in June a plan To gradually eliminate all Russian gas and oil imports before 2027, prohibiting new contracts since 2026 and ending existing ones no later than 2027. According to EurostatRussia’s quota in EU gas imports collapsed from 45% in 2021 to less than 20% in 2025, replaced by US flows, Norway and Algeria.
The United States enters the equation. That turn has reinforced Washington’s dependence. A July of Reuters report explained that Brussels studies grouping the demand for European companies to negotiate joint purchases of American LNG, within the Aggregateeu mechanism. Under the objective of ensuring sufficient volumes and fulfilling the commitment to acquire up to 250,000 million dollars annually in American energy over the next three years.
The Plan evidences EU’s strategy to replace Kremlin with Washington, although analysts cited by Reuters warn that the objective could be too ambitious and leave Europe vulnerable to political swings on the other side of the Atlantic.
Forecasts The immediate panorama is more serene: traders expect a winter without shocks if the weather does not give surprises. But in the medium term, the dilemmas persist. As Ainvest has pointed outthe EU has added 70 BCM of new regasification capacity since 2022, but many terminals work at low capacity. There is the risk of assets stranded if the demand remains stagnant and the transition to renewables is accelerated.
The possible output is in conversion: several projects seek to adapt gas infrastructure to hydrogen transport, within the decarbonization strategy.
More robust reserves. Before a calmer market, at least for now. The continent has gone from the Russian dependence on a more diversified framework, with the US as a key partner and China releasing pressure in global markets. However, vulnerabilities persist: Germany as weak link, overcapacity in LNG infrastructures and the unknown of a climate that could alter the most optimistic forecasts.
The 2022 nightmare seems distant, but the European energy transition remains a race against time.
Image | Unspash
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