The chances of crashing an asteroid of “large” category on our planet They are, on average, 0.001%. Therefore, everything that begins to raise that figure begins to be “less” normal. Hence Let’s talk about 2024 YR4 and its 1.6%. That said, and although there are less possibilities that it will occur, due to its size, The Bennu Asteroid It would be one of the most dangerous of the solar system. How much? That is precisely what they wanted to find out in South Korea.
Potentially dangerous. The Bennu Asteroid, an object close to the land of approximately 0.5 kilometers in diameter, has been identified as one of the greatest known space threats. His orbit brings him closer to our planet every six years, and although the risk of impact is extremely low (right now it is 0.037%), the possibility of colliding with the Earth on September 24, 2182 has led the scientific community to the scientific community analyze in depth its possible effects.
An unprecedented recent study, Posted in Science Advances By researchers at the IBS Institute of Climate Physics of the National University of Pusan in South Korea, it has modeled for the first time the climatic and ecological consequences of an impact of a medium -sized asteroid such as Bennu. The results, of course, are not the best.
The legacy of an ancient asteroid. Scientists believe that Bennu detached himself from a larger asteroid, rich in carbon, between 700 million and two billion years ago, progressively approaching the Earth’s orbit. Its composition is of great scientific interest for a simple and fascinating reason: contains key elements for lifewhat motivated NASA’s Osiris-Rex mission to explore it in 2020 and bring samples to Earth in 2023.
However, and beyond its scientific value, Bennu represents a real risk that, although unlikely, cannot be ignored.
Impact simulation. As explained in the study, South Korean researchers designed Detailed models to analyze how that possible impact of Bennu would affect climate, biodiversity and food security. What did they find? The most extreme scenario revealed that the impact would inject into the atmosphere between 100 and 400 million tons of dust. In other words, more graphic: it would block sunlight and plunge the planet in abrupt cooling.
As for the effects, the simulation showed a certainty: They would be global and devastating. Namely: reduction in the average planet temperature in up to 4 ° C, a decrease comparable to the eras glaciers, 15% drop in rainfall, affecting the water supply and agriculture, loss of 32% of the ozone layer , exposing life on Earth to dangerous levels of ultraviolet radiation, and the decrease in photosynthesis by 20-30%, both in terrestrial and sailor ecosystems, which would cause a serious crisis in food production.
In short, these combined effects would trigger, according to the study, A winter of impact that would last between three and four yearscausing global famine and an ecological crisis of enormous proportions.
Comparison with past events. While a Bennu impact would be devastating, the truth is that the earth has faced major threats. The best known event occurred 66 million years ago, When an asteroid of 10 kilometers in diameter hit what is now Chicxulub, Mexicocausing the extinction of dinosaurs and climatic alterations that endured thousands of years. In comparison, Bennu is significantly smaller, but large enough to cause mass destruction and deeply alter the biosphere.
Not just that. Other studies suggest that medium -sized asteroids such as bennu collide with the earth approximately every 100,000 to 200,000 years, indicating that Our prehistoric ancestors could have experienced similar events with impact on human evolution and global biodiversity.
Impact on the oceans. Despite the catastrophic effects, Bennu’s impact could generate an unexpected reaction on the oceans. The iron released in the stratosphere would be deposited in the sea, stimulating the proliferation of phytoplankton and zooplanktonessential organisms for the marine food chain.
According to the study, while land ecosystems would take two to three years to recover, Marine life could recover in just six monthsand even exceed their levels prior to the impact due to the increase in nutrients.
Planetary Defense Strategies. Despite the low impact risk, NASA and other space agencies work on the development of planetary defense technologies. For example, the Dart mission (Double Asteroid Redirection Test)carried out in 2022, he successfully demonstrated the human ability to divert the trajectory of an asteroid, opening the door to future mitigation strategies.
And besides Bennu, there are other more immediate threats. For example and as we have explained these days, Asteroid 2024 YR4 has a 1.6% probability of impacting the Earth in 2032which reinforces the need to continue with research and develop effective prevention systems.
What does seem clear to this last study is that not only reveals the vulnerability of our planet to cosmic events, but also highlights that need to advance surveillance and planetary defense technology. While the possibility that Bennu or any other asteroid impact the earth is minimal, geological history demonstrates that events of this type have shaped the evolution of life and could happen again in the future.
Image | Ghost presentNASA
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