At noon, the sun and the wind are left over in the emptied regions. At dusk, the cities turn on the gas. Spain has run more than anyone raising renewables in the unpopulated territory, but the cables that take them to the demand are not tended at the same speed. The result is a broken bridge: clean energy is born in emptied Spain and does not arrive, when it is necessary, urban Spain. Today, for the first time, the distributors have published the “Map of Plug” for new demand: the photo is stark.
The expected map. By mandate of the National Commission of Markets and Competition (CNMC), the great distributors —I-de (Iberdrola), e-Distribution (Endesa), UFD (Naturgy), E-Redes (EDP) and Repsol Distribution— They have published the capacity maps To connect new firm demand to the distribution network.
It is an radiography where they show, knot to knot, where there is a hole, what is busy and what is in process. According to the employer Aelēcthe first results confirm that 83.4% of knots are already saturated, which prevents connecting new consumptions such as industries, data centers, storage or electric vehicle recharge. The association itself defines it as “transparency milestone”, but warns that, under these conditions, without investment, the transition is raised.
The great territorial neck. Here is the core of the problem. Spain has installed renewables where there is resource and soil: rural regions with low density and little network. However, demand grows in cities: metropolitan areas, logistics corridors, data clusters. In the middle there is an electrical system that does not endure that mismatch, since transport corridors are missing to evacuate surpluses and, above all, distribution capacity to connect the new demand where it is requested. The result is that at noon there are many cheap MWh that are cut or sold at zero price; When the sun falls, the network needs support and the gas enters, Based on pool.
The double face of emptied Spain. If the anticipatory network is not remunerated and planned, there will be no industries, CPDs, or recharge of electric vehicles, or hydrogen or storage projects that create employment and set population. But if investigated without criteria, the cost will fall on rates without effective use. The key is agile planning, clear priorities and mechanisms that accelerate reinforcements where demand is plausible: poles such as Aragon, but also Extremadura, Castilla y León, Castilla-La Mancha or inner Andalusia, where hot knots and curtailment-up to 30% renewable wasted by saturation– They are already common.
The demand boom. There is a very illustrative fact: The increase in data centers. Applications to get an access point have multiplied by 80 compared to previous years, According to the Spanish. Among them are technological, great consumers and promoters of hybrids that seek to consume in situ.
Aragon has become an epicenter. Only the projected data centers would add more than 2 GW of requested power, with Amazon Web Services, Microsoft or QTS/Blackstone at the head. In this new scenario, the race for a “plug” is no longer limited to first: weigh guarantees, guarantees and project criteria.
“Historic traffic jam.” The “complete maps” – without significant hollows – stress even more the pulse with the CNMC. The fear of the sector is double: losing industrial and digital projects (including CPDs) for not being able to connect them and see investment relocation if the jam persists. The electricity story connects that urgency with the regulated remuneration: they argue that with a rate of 6.46% the volume of reinforcements required by the demand wave required, and remember that in other countries (Italy, United Kingdom, Sweden) the reference rates are higher; In Spain, they ask around 7.5%.
For its part, the CNMC two proposals presented in July: a financial compensation rate of 6.46% by 2026-2031 (from current 5.58%) and a new distribution methodology that turns towards the Totex model (CAPEX + OPEX). This system includes incentives for efficiency and quality, and league part of the remuneration to the contracted power, to avoid overrredes that end up paying consumers. The regulator insists that the framework must encourage investment without compromising the affordability of the invoice.
The forecasts. Access to the distribution network no longer depends only on the order of arrival. The processing requires guarantees, technical draft and guarantees, and a period of one month to present the documentation after reserving a point. The resolutions should be issued in less than six months, with technical support for Red Electric. In addition, scores that value CO₂, investment volume and speed at the beginning of consumption are applied.
In parallel, solutions such as battery PPAS arise, which allow to finance storage and take advantage of the cheap electricity at noon at the afternoon, avoiding the resource to gas. But without broader investment limits, as Aelēc claimsthe bridge between rural Spain and urban Spain will remain broken.
The PNIEC foresees more than 53,000 million in networks until 2030, although the CNMC defends to maintain the rate at 6.46% for efficiency and affordability, while the sector asks for greater certainty and return. The political context adds pressure: after the rejection of the “Decree antiaps” In July, the dilemma is sharpened.
The end point. Spain does not have a sun or wind problem; It has a bridge problem between where it occurs and where it is consumed. Capacity maps have made what the industry had been suffering: the distribution network is at the limit.
Without a jump in investment and planning, the transition will be stuck where there are less labor and more territory. If the network does not reach empty Spain, clean energy will not reach rich Spain. The choice is not whether to invest or not, but how, where and with what rules so that the cost does not pay it neither the countryside nor the city, but the economic future of both.
Image | Freepik
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