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The commercial war between China and the United States showed a problem for Beijing: they like, much, the American soybeans, to the point that each year they import Millions of tons With the direction of Asia. Of commercial conflict a Unexpected winner: Brazil. Now, the actors themselves appear in another scenario derived from the commercial war. Americans can pass For many things, but do not take away a good barbecue.
The commercial war has opened an uncertain scenario for devour meat.
Global hamburger in war. Told this weekend The New York Times that, curiously, most of the hamburgers consumed in the United States are not thence. Despite his image as a national emblem, the American hamburger is, in fact, the result of a very wide international supply chain. The ground meat that feeds barbecues, school canteens and fast food chains usually combine local meat with imports, especially and first of Brazil, today The greatest exporter of beef in the world.
This interdependence has been exposed after the imposition of generalized tariffs by Trump, whose measures have reconfigured the World Meat Trade And the basic products that millions of Americans consume daily.
Brazil, between two giants. In the midst of this commercial war, Brazil emerges (again) as a great beneficiary. Its meat, produced at low cost thanks to huge extensions of grass and cheap labor, has seen shoot your demand both in the United States and China, two economies that alone fail to satisfy the appetite Growing for lean proteins.
The imports of Brazilian meat by Washington grew more than 50% In a single year, reaching a record of 1.3 billion dollars, even despite the 10% tariff that raises the final price for consumers. Meanwhile, China, also facing US tariffs, has reduced your purchases There and redoubled his commitment to Brazil, where almost half of his beef is already from the South American country.
Molina meat in the eye of the hurricane. This (re) accommodation of commercial flows has caused a Price increase In the global market: Brazilian flesh has become more expensive about 20% Only since April. American meat companies, trapped between the need to maintain affordable prices and the rise in costs, have begun to Mix pork In their hamburgers to reduce the impact to the consumer.
Meanwhile, Brazilian producers such as Grupo Fribal plan expand your herds In tens of thousands of heads to take advantage of a demand that, although buoyant, demands time and resources to materialize, in a context of recurrent droughts and logistic saturation in Brazilian ports.
Usa dependence. The key in everything is that, although the United States remains a great producer of beef, its specialization is In the premium cuts like him Rib-Eye or the Filet Mignonnot in the type of lean and economic flesh that feeds mass consumption. Therefore, to make their hamburgers, US processors need to mix local meat more fat with imported lean varieties, and Brazil appears.
As The economist explains Agrícola Glynn Tonsor in the Times, “in the United States we consume more ground meat than we produce.” The problem? That this structural dependence leaves exposed consumers: ground meat prices have increased 43% in five yearsand they are expected to continue going up while inflation forces homes to leave expensive cuts and return to the basics. All this, at a time when the American livestock census is in minimum of 73 years for droughts and rise in the price of the feed.
Brazil and the consumer. Explained the NYT That while China reinforces its ties with Brazil after revoking licenses of more than 390 US processors in retaliation, President Lula tries to maintain diplomatic balances between his two main commercial partners. However, his advisor Celso Amorim Lets meridianly clear: China today offers “more opportunities and less risks” than the United States.
Before the new scenario, Brazilian producers prepare to Fill the void left by Americans, although they recognize that expanding production requires time. With a Chinese middle class increasingly fond of the steak and The Hot Pots of beef, and an American demand that does not find substitutes on the same scale, Brazil is positioned as the winning epicenter of a meat trade in full transformation.
Of course, with a “but” in the result that summarize very well The president of the Brazilian Association of Meat Exporters, Roberto Perosa: the ranchers are winning, but it will be US consumers who literally “eat the invoice.”
Image | Pxhere
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