If in the 20th century the powers fought over oil wells, in 2026 the battle will be fought on the periodic table. Lithium, cobalt, gallium and rare earths have become the new barrels of crude oil, essential for manufacturing everything from the battery of an electric car to the guidance system of a hypersonic missile.
In this scenario, Donald Trump’s administration has encountered an inescapable geological reality: the rhetoric of “America First” has a physical limit. To win the technology race of the 21st century, Washington needs its neighbors. In an unprecedented diplomatic and economic maneuver, the United States has launched an offensive to recruit Mexico, Argentina and a bloc of global allies, with the declared objective of shielding themselves from the vulnerability posed by China’s almost absolute dominance over critical minerals.
The peak of strategic anxiety. The epicenter of this Copernican turn was the State Department in Washington, where Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance They served as hosts at the “Ministerial Meeting on Critical Minerals”. The call was no less: 55 international delegations sat at the table, under an urgent premise that the free market has failed.
The American diagnosis is severe. China controls 90% of rare earth processing capacity and has begun to use that monopoly as a geopolitical weapon, imposing licensing requirements and restricting exports to pressure American industry. “The international market for critical minerals is failing,” said Vice President Vancearguing that Beijing floods the market with low prices to ruin Western competition and then raise prices at will.
Project Vault and the lapse. To counter this, the White House has presented tools that rewrite the rules of global capitalism. Trump announced the creation of a strategic mineral reserve valued at 12 billion dollars (10 billion in Ex-Im Bank loans and almost 1.67 billion in private capital). Like the Strategic Petroleum Reserve created in the 1970s, this “vault” —call Project Vault— will accumulate stock to protect giants such as General Motors, Stellantis and Google from future supply crises.
But the White House mentality has gone from business to war, literally. In a Freudian slip or statement of intent, the Trump administration’s official documents on these investments list the Pentagon under its 19th-century name: Department of War (War Department). Under this anachronistic headingWashington is already financing mining projects in Alaska and North Carolina, making it clear that resource extraction is no longer a matter of the market, but of pure and simple national defense.
The FORGE alliance and “price floors”. To support this scheme, has been launched he Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement (FORGE), initially chaired by South Korea, to coordinate a “preferential trade zone.” The revolutionary idea here is floor prices: if China pulls down global prices, the members of the bloc external tariffs will apply to maintain high internal value, thus guaranteeing the profitability of mining investments in allied countries.
However, the market has reacted with skepticism to this interventionism. Paradoxically, after the announcement, the shares of American mining companies such as MP Materials and USA Rare Earth plummeted between 6% and 9%. According to analysts cited by Reutersthe fear is that the Trump administration will withdraw direct subsidies for individual projects to focus on this complex global price engineering, leaving local companies exposed to regulatory uncertainty.
This entire American strategy draws a two-speed map of the world. On the one hand, there is the technological “VIP club”: the United States, Japan and the European Union will sign a binding trilateral agreement in 30 days to coordinate their industries. On the other hand, there are the suppliers of raw materials: Latin America.
Argentina and the delivery of Lithium. In the south, Javier Milei’s administration has decided to unconditionally align its resources with Washington’s interests. Argentina, the world’s fifth largest producer of lithium, signed a framework agreement that ties it to the American supply chain, using RIGI as bait (Incentive Regime for Large Investments). For the White House, Argentina is the key piece to deal a blow to Beijing. At the moment, more than 70% of Argentine lithium travels to China, a flow that the US is determined to cut off and redirect towards its own factories.
The operation is already underway. While diplomacy was signing papers, money was moving: the giant Glencore has agreed with the Orion consortium (backed by the US) to acquire assets, demonstrating how Western capital is beginning to take positions on the ground. Secretary Marco Rubio He did not hide his enthusiasm for this total provision: “Argentina is going to be a key partner for the world,” he stated, highlighting not only the extraction, but the country’s capacity to process the materials that the US needs. In practice, this makes the South American country a primary link in American national security.
Mexico: The treasure map and the threat of the “Menú”. The situation in Mexico is one of forced pragmatism under threat. With the T-MEC review scheduled for July, the Mexican government accepted an “Action Plan” 60 days that goes far beyond commerce. The agreement opens the door to something that strikes a chord with national sovereignty: the US Geological Survey will collaborate in the “geological mapping” of Mexican territory to locate deposits, an x-ray of the neighbor’s resources carried out from Washington to “provide transparency.” The Secretary of Economy, Marcelo Ebrard, justified the transfer with a phrase of brutal realism: “If you are not at the table participating, you are on the menu.”
But for many, Mexico is already being devoured. The “Cambiémosla Ya” collective has issued a fierce alertdenouncing that this plan is a “return to neoliberalism” that subordinates national sovereignty to the industrial needs of the north. They warn that the rush to comply with Washington’s quotas will cause “the dispossession, displacement and destruction of communities”, relaxing regulations to turn the territory into a sacrifice zone for the US energy transition.
Passport for rocks, walls for people. The backdrop of this great mineral alliance reveals a contradiction that defines the current era. While the Trump administration maintains a rhetoric of border closure and cultural protectionism—at a time when the Latin influence is so undeniable that global phenomena such as Bad Bunny makes history at the Super Bowl—, the White House has had to admit an existential dependence on the South.
The urgency of lithium and cobalt has forced a hypocritical truce: Washington seems to say that while its borders can be tightened for people, they must remain wide open for resources. It is a subtle update of continental diplomacy, where integration is measured in tons of ore and sovereignty is negotiated at trading tables. As Heidi Crebo-Rediker summarizedfrom the Council on Foreign Relations: “The rocks are where the rocks are.” In the end, in this new map drawn by technological necessity, the only thing that seems to have the Green Card stones are guaranteed.
Image | The White House and freepik
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