USA has announced one of the largest arms sales deals ever signed with Taiwan, a package valued at more than 11,000 million of dollars that includes medium-range missiles, HIMARS systemsself-propelled howitzers, suicide drones, military software and anti-tank ammunition.
The message is loud and clear to reach 130 km away.
A package with a copyto. Formally, the operation is presented as an upgrade of the island’s defensive capabilities and as fulfillment of the US legal obligation to help Taiwan defend itself. In practice, however, the agreement is a strategic message in every rule, carefully formulated to strengthen deterrence against China without altering the diplomatic framework of ambiguity that Washington has maintained for decades.
The fact that the announcement came during a televised speech by Trump in which foreign policy was barely mentioned underlines the extent to which the gesture was intended more as a structural signal than an immediate rhetorical coup.
Missiles, HIMARS and drones. The content of the package is not coincidental. HIMARS systems and ATACMS missiles, already tested on the Ukrainian battlefield, they are designed to hit long-range targets with great precision, greatly complicating any Chinese amphibious or air operation (without rhetoric, against an invasion).
to it they add up self-propelled howitzers, Javelin and TOW missiles, and kamikaze drones designed to overwhelm and wear down an adversary superior in numbers. It is a clearly oriented military architecture to asymmetric war: It does not seek that Taiwan can defeat China, but that it can inflict costs so high and so fast that an invasion ceases to be a politically acceptable option in Beijing. Washington and Taipei insist that these are defensive weapons, but the type of capabilities included points to a strategy of denial of territory and airspace in the early stages of a conflict.
The strategic ambiguity. The size of the agreement also has an internal reading in the United States. During Trump’s second term, part of the establishment security and the hardest sectors towards China had expressed doubts about their real commitment to the defense of Taiwan, especially in a negotiation context trade with Beijing.
A package that exceeds 11,000 million of dollars, greater than the total volume sold during the Biden presidency and equivalent to more than half of what was approved in Trump’s first term, serves to dispel these suspicions. Without explicitly committing direct military intervention, Washington de facto reinforces his support for Taiwan and demonstrates that the so-called “strategic ambiguity” does not equal passivity. The message is twofold: to China, that the cost of coercion will continue to rise; and to US allies, that the US security network remains operational in the Asia-Pacific.
The red line narrative. The Chinese reaction has been immediate and predictable. Beijing has condemned the agreement as a violation of its sovereignty and has warned that Taiwan is a “red line” that should not be crossed in Sino-US relations. In its official speech, the Communist Party insists that rearmament of the island only turns it into a powder keg and accelerates the risk of war.
However, the intensity of the response also reflects an uncomfortable reality for China: each new weapons package raises the military and political threshold for any pressure action. While the People’s Liberation Army increases daily with flights, naval maneuvers and large-scale exercises, the United States reply silently strengthening Taiwan’s capacity for resistance, without the need to modify treaties or formally recognize its sovereignty.
Taiwan and the internal cost. For Taipei, the agreement comes at a politically complex time. President Lai Ching-te has proposed a historic special budget of 40,000 million dollars for defense, which includes air defense systems like the T-Dome and a wide range of long-range capabilities, but faces resistance from an opposition that controls parliament and questions both the cost and effectiveness of previous purchases.
Even so, there is a growing consensus on the island about the need to increase military spending to at least 5% of GDP in 2030, in line with Washington’s implicit demands. American protection is not free: it comes accompanied by political pressure, budgetary sacrifices and a profound transformation of the Taiwanese defensive structure.
Ukraine as a precedent. The parallel with Ukraine is inevitable. The same systems as the United States has sent to kyiv to stop Russia now appear in the package destined for Taiwan. In both cases, the strategy is similar: do not intervene directly, but arm a partner until it becomes a credible military barrier against a revisionist power.
In Europe, this model is applied in open war. In Asia, as prevention. The result is an increasingly clear pattern in Western security policy: finance and equip allies key to acting as the first line of deterrence, reducing the need for direct confrontation between great powers.
The final message. He arms deal with Taiwan does not guarantee peace in the Strait, but it redefines its balance. The United States does not promise to defend Taiwan no matter what, but it does ensure that any attempt to force reunification will be expensive, lengthy and politically explosive.
Taiwan, for its part, accept the role of an advanced bastion, assuming the economic cost and strategic risk that this implies. And China is getting a clear, if carefully worded, message: Washington is not seeking war, but neither will it allow the status quo to be broken without consequences.
Like in Ukrainedeterrence is not articulated with grandiloquent words, but with missiles, rockets and drones. And on the global board, that language remains the most eloquent.
Image | 中文（臺灣）：中華民國總統府, NARA, 總統府
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