China has surrounded it with 26 planes and 7 warships

In 1950, in the midst of Korean Warthe United States discovered a problem that continues to haunt the great powers: when you concentrate your military resources on one front, other places on the map begin to move. That war coincided with crises in Europe and growing tensions in the Taiwan Strait, recalling a constant of geopolitics: conflicts never occur in a vacuum.

A strategic déjà vu in Asia. The war between the United States and Iran has opened an unexpected front thousands of kilometers from the Persian Gulf. While Washington concentrates military resources in the Middle East (missiles, air defenses and expeditionary units) the Indo-Pacific watches with concern how this displacement alters the regional balance.

The contrast became evident in an almost symbolic image: a few hours apart, the United States sent marines to reinforce its operation against Iran, and Taiwan once again detected a great chinese military activity around him. We talk about 26 planes and seven ships of war that appeared near the island after a strange silence of several days. For many in Asia it was a geopolitical déjà vu: Every time Washington is caught in another conflict, the pressure on Taiwan intensifies again.

A strange pause. For more than a week, something unusual occurred in the Taiwan Strait: Chinese military planes they practically disappeared. In recent years, raids had become a daily routinewith dozens of aircraft entering the Taiwanese air identification zone as part of Beijing’s pressure strategy. Suddenly, for twelve out of thirteen days, it did not register practically no flights.

Taiwanese authorities sought explanations, from adjustments in Chinese military training to Beijing’s desire to reduce tensions before a summit between Xi Jinping and Trump. They told in the New York Times that silence never meant withdrawal. The Chinese Navy continued operating near the island and experts warned that the absence of aircraft should not be interpreted as a real reduction in the threat.

The sudden return. The hiatus finally ended over the weekend. Taiwan announced the detection of those 26 Chinese military aircraft along with seven warships around the island, with various devices crossing the midline of the strait or entering its air defense zone. A type of maneuvers that are part of the called “gray zone”a strategy that does not amount to open war but seeks to wear down the Taiwanese defense and normalize the Chinese military presence in the area.

The truth is that with the passage of time, these movements have ceased to be exceptional episodes and have become in a routine which erodes the informal border of the strait and reinforces political pressure on Taipei.

The domino effect. The temporal coincidence with the war in the Middle East has not passed unnoticed in Asia. Before the conflict with Iran began, the United States had already diverted an aircraft carrier battle group from the South China Sea to the Gulf. As we count a few days ago, with the war underway at the Pentagon has transferred also advanced air defenses from Asia (including Patriot interceptors and THAAD systems deployed in South Korea) to reinforce protection against Iranian drones and missiles.

There is no doubt that this move sends an uncomfortable signal to Asian allies: even in the region that Washington defines as its strategic priority, resources can be withdrawn if a crisis arises elsewhere.

A strategic window. In Asia many interpret this redistribution as a opportunity for China. With part of the American military machine occupied in the Middle East and with accelerated consumption of interceptor missiles and ammunition, several countries fear that the United States’ response capacity in the Indo-Pacific will be temporarily weaken.

Beijing can take advantage of that situation to, for example, reinforce its narrative that the United States is a distracted and overextended powerunable to guarantee security simultaneously in several regions. At the same time, the rising oil prices and the economic uncertainty generated by the war also hit Asian economies especially hard, many of them highly dependent on the energy supply that passes through the Strait of Hormuz.

The marines and the equation. Meanwhile, in the Middle East there is another key move. We reported this morning that the United States has deployed a Marine Expeditionary Unit of some 2,500 troops to reinforce the operation against Iran. These amphibious units are rapid response forces designed to carry out raids, occupy strategic positions and project power from the sea to land.

In the context of the Persian Gulf, its mission could include attacks against islands or bases from which Iran launches drones, missiles or mines against maritime traffic. The deployment marks a possible transition to a more aggressive phase of the war, one in which ground or amphibious operations gain weight.

A void in the Pacific. The problem is that this unit comes from the Indo-Pacificwhere it normally acts as a reaction force in regional crises. Its transfer temporarily leaves a scenario that includes such sensitive points without that resource. like South Korea or his own Taiwan Strait.

At the same time, other US units are already involved in operations in different locations, from Venezuela to the Middle East. That redistribution fuels the perception that the US military apparatus is being stretched to the limits of its operational capabilities.

Lesson for Asia. For many Asian governments, the war with Iran is offering an uncomfortable lesson on regional security architecture. If the United States should move air defenses from South Korea or delay arms deliveries to allies like Taiwan to sustain a campaign in the Middle East, means that its arsenal and industrial capacity are not as deep as previously thought.

From that perspective, some countries are already reacting by reinforcing its own military industry or developing national defense systems to reduce dependence on Washington, for example, Japan.

The board moves at the same time. The result is an increasingly clear picture of the new strategic order. The war in Iran is not only redefining the balance in the Middle East, it is also reconfiguring the board in Asia. As Washington turns its attention to the Gulf, Beijing continues to test the limits around Taiwan with flights, ships and maneuvers that are repeated with increasing frequency.

And that contrast, with the us marines deploying towards a new phase of the Iranian conflict as Taiwan wake up again surrounded by Chinese military activity, summarizes the true geopolitical dilemma of the moment: that Washington can fight several crises at the same time, but each of them inevitably leaves a space in which another actor could be willing to take advantage.

Image | Xinhua, 中文（臺灣）總統府

In Xataka | In 2021 a man made a military prediction and since then Taiwan and the US have been preparing for a date: 2027

In Xataka | “We have never seen anything like this”: if China invades Taiwan, Taiwan will not notice because a drone has been disguised as an optical illusion for months